[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241721
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Feb 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure across the western Atlantic and lower pressure over
northern Colombia will continue to support pulsing NE trades to
minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night through
Sat night. Seas will range between 8 to 11 ft during the gale
event. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast
of Guinea near 09N13W extending SW to 03N17W. The ITCZ then
continues from 03N17W to 01N30W to 02N40W to 01N46W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from the equator to
05N between 16W and 22W. Scattered moderate convection is also
noted from 01S to 03N between 35W and 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front continues to reach across the NW Gulf,
extending from Marsh Island, Louisiana SW to La Pesca, Mexico.
Overcast skies remain behind the front, with moderate NE
breezes. Surface ridging is elsewhere ahead of the front,
allowing for moderate to fresh ESE winds in the eastern and
southern Gulf, including the Florida Straits and eastern Bay of
Campeche, with mainly moderate flow elsewhere. Recent altimeter
and buoy data indicate seas of 3 to 5 ft across the basin

For the forecast, the stationary front will weaken today. A
stronger cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf late
tonight, reaching from near Mobile, Alabama to Brownsville,
Texas Fri afternoon, then weaken as it reaches from
north-central Florida to 27N89W, and then stationary to extreme
southern Texas late Fri. Low pressure is expected to form
offshore extreme southern Texas on Sat along the western part of
the front, and shift SSE through Sun as it dissipates. The cold
front will weaken as it continues to the SE Gulf by late Mon.
Strong north winds will follow the front over the far western
Gulf on Sun and Sun night. Otherwise, strong east winds will
develop off the northern Yucatan Peninsula at night through Fri.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia.
Please read the Special Features section for details.

A dry air mass dominates the Caribbean Sea, allowing only
shallow patches of moisture to ride the trades producing weak,
isolated showers. The pressure gradient over the Caribbean
continues to support fresh to strong E winds over the central
and northwestern Caribbean. Mainly strong winds are south of
Hispaiola to 15N and within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia.
Strong NE winds are noted within the Windward passage and the
lee side of Cuba by a recent scatterometer pass. Moderate seas
are across the basin, except off the coast of Colombia where
rough seas are up to 11 ft.

For the forecast, strong high pressure over the northern half of
the Caribbean will continue to support gale force NE winds off
the coast of Colombia and fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side
of Cuba, south of Hispaniola and across the Windward Passage
through Fri night. Gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia is
forecast again on Sat night. A cold front is forecast to enter the
NW Caribbean Sun night followed by moderate to fresh N to NE
winds. The front will weaken as it reaches from eastern Cuba to
the NE part of Honduras Mon night. Otherwise, moderate trade winds
over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser
Antilles will increase to fresh speeds Fri afternoon and continue
through Sun along with building seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tropical Atlantic is dominated by two strong areas of high
pressure, with a broad surface trough in between. The Bermuda
subtropical ridge prevails over the western Atlantic,
maintaining tranquil weather conditions, moderate seas, and
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow north of the Bahamas and W
of 70W.  The trough axis stretches from 30N60W to 19N54W. Recent
satellite scatterometer data depicts fresh to locally strong NNE
winds on the W side of the trough to 70W and fresh NE winds
south of 27N and west of 70W, including over the Bahamas. Seas
are 6 to 9 ft in NE to E swell, except over the Bahamas seas are
5 to 7 ft.

East of the trough, the scatterometer data revealed an area of
strong SE winds from 22N to 29N between 45W and 60W. Winds are
near gale force from 22N and 25N between 51N and 55W. Seas
heights range from 9 to 12 ft and up to 13 ft in the area of the
strongest winds. The rest of the Atlantic is dominated by the
Azores subtropical ridge, found just NW of the Azores, along
with fresh to strong NE flow and 8 to 10 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 65W, the tightening gradient between
high pressure across the area and the broad trough will continue
to support fresh to locally strong NE winds mainly over the
offshore waters S of 27N through Fri. Afterward, moderate to fresh
northeast winds will dominate the region through Sat night. The
next cold front will move off the NE Florida coast Sun evening. It
will reach from near 31N68W to 27N20W and to west-central Cuba
early Mon and from near 27N65W to eastern Cuba Mon night.

$$
Mora
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