[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201651
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Feb 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1635 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient will continue
support pulsing winds to minimal gale-force within about 90 nm
of the coast of Colombia each night through well into the
upcoming week. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show strong
to near gale-force trades occurring offshore Colombia. These
winds will generate wave heights in the range of 9-12 ft.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic from the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and extends to 05N20W. The ITCZ then continues
from 05N20W to 01N33W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed on satellite imagery from the coast of Brazil to 08N and
W of 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front enters the Gulf of Mexico through the Florida
Straits, becoming a dissipating stationary front near the
northwest coast of Cuba to just north of the Yucatan peninsula. A
surface trough extends from near Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico to just
offshore Tamaulipas, while another surface trough lingers in the
waters off the Texas coast. These features are only producing a
few light showers. The rest of the Gulf is dominated by a fairly
dry continental airmass. Surface observations and latest
satellite-derived wind data show that moderate to fresh easterly
winds prevail across the basin, except for NW winds in the W Bay
of Campeche. Seas of 5-8 ft are found in the SW Gulf and 2-5 ft
elsewhere. An altimeter satellite pass from earlier this morning
captured sea heights up to 9 ft in the W Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will gradually
dissipate into Mon. Strong winds offshore Veracruz will diminish
this afternoon as high pressure settles over the region. The high
will move east Mon, leading to fresh to strong southerly return
flow in the NW Gulf starting Mon night. A cold front is likely to
enter the far NW Gulf Thu, then stall, before being overtaken by a
stronger cold front Thu night. This second cold front will bring
strong N winds to portions of the northern and western Gulf for
the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia.

Fairly tranquil weather conditions are prevalent across the
Caribbean Sea. A few patches of low-level moisture ride the
trades, mostly found in the central Caribbean, and support only
shallow isolated showers. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
indicate that strong to near gale-force winds are occurring in the
south-central Caribbean Sea, with the strongest trades affecting
the offshore waters of NW Colombia. Fresh to locally strong trades
are present in the north-central and western Caribbean Sea.
Moderate or weaker winds are found elsewhere. Seas of 7-10 ft are
noted in the south-central Caribbean and 4-7 ft seas in the rest
of the basin.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia
each night into Fri. Fresh to strong northeast winds will funnel
through the Windward Passage into Fri. Otherwise, moderate to
occasionally fresh trade winds will continue over the tropical
north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles through the
period. Seas over these waters will slowly subside through early
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N62W to the central Bahamas, where it
transitions into a stationary front that continues into the
Florida Straits. A few showers are noted near the frontal
boundary. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depict fresh to
strong NE winds behind the frontal boundary, while seas in the
region are 7-10 ft.

Farther east, a surface trough extends from 29N49W to
14N51W. Divergence aloft is enhancing scattered convection to the
east of the trough. Meanwhile, a strong high pressure system of
1042 mb persists near the Azores. The tight pressure gradient
created by the subtropical ridge and lower pressures in the deep
tropics and surface trough result in a large region of fresh to
near gale-force winds covering most of the central and eastern
Atlantic, especially E of 50W. The strongest winds are found N of
23N and between 22W and 45W, and N of 17N and E of 22W. The
prominent area of winds allows for a large swell region covering
the central and eastern tropical Atlantic. Seas greater than 8 ft
are occurring E of 55W and greater than 12 ft occurring N of 21N
and E of 40W.

The rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions,
with moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned front will fully
stall by tonight when it reaches 31N54W to the SE Bahamas. Then,
it will gradually dissipate through Mon night. Fresh to strong
northerly winds behind the front will diminish to mainly fresh
speeds Mon night. A tightening gradient between high pressure that
will settle in over the area in the wake of the front, and an
approaching broad trough from the E will lead northeast to east
winds increasing to fresh speeds over the most of the southern
forecast waters from late Wed through Thu night. Fresh to strong
northeast winds are expected near and in the Windward Passage.

$$
DELGADO
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