[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201100
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Feb 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient will continue
support pulsing winds to minimal gale-force within about 90 nm
of the coast of Colombia each night through well into the
upcoming week. These winds will generate wave heights in the range
of 9-12 ft.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic from the coast of
Sierra Leone near 07N13W and extends to 05N17W, where overnight
scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ
to the equator at 40W. Scattered moderate convection is south
of the trough and ITCZ from 01N to 03N between 15W-20W,
and within 30 nm south of the ITCZ between 22W-25W.

An area of scattered moderate convection is northwest of the
ITCZ from 02N to 08N between 39W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening cold front extends from the Florida Keys to 24N88W,
where it becomes stationary to the central Bay of Campeche. Strong
to near gale-force winds, with wave heights of 8-10 ft are in far
southwestern Gulf offshore Veracruz as noted in an overnight
ASCAT data pass. Buoys throughout the remainder of the Gulf are
reporting moderate to fresh northeast winds along with wave
heights of 4-7 ft, except for higher wave heights of 6-8 ft
elsewhere in the SW Gulf. Overnight ASCAT data passes reveal
similar type winds.

Isolated showers and patches of light rain are in the NW Gulf due
increasing moisture in that part of the Gulf.

As for the forecast, the weakening cold front extends from the
Florida Keys to 24N88W, where it becomes stationary to the central
Bay of Campeche. The front will slowly move southward today,
becoming stationary over the Straits of Florida and far
southeastern Gulf by early this afternoon. The strong to near
gale-force northwest to north winds in the SW Gulf near Veracruz
will diminish in the morning. The front will dissipate across the
eastern Gulf region on Mon as high pressure over the region
shifts eastward. Fresh to strong return flow will develop over the
Gulf Mon into early Tue. A cold front is expected to enter the
far NW Gulf Wed night and stall. Another cold front is then
expected to enter the NW Gulf Thu night followed by fresh to
strong northerly winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia.

A mid-level ridge is pretty much stationary over the area keeping
dry and stable conditions aloft. As a result, no deep convection
is observed. Only patches of low-level moisture embedded in the
trade wind flow are noted. They are more concentrated north of
14N between 69W-80W. Isolated showers are possible with this
moisture. Isolated showers are also in the vicinity of the Lesser
Antilles.

Partial overnight ASCAT data passes have moderate to fresh
northeast to east winds over just about the entire basin, except
for fresh to strong winds in the SW Caribbean outside the gale
warning wind area and in and near the Windward Passage, south
of Cuba to near 18N and near the south-central coast of Hispaniola.
Lighter winds, of gentle to moderate speeds, are in the extreme
southwest corner of the basin. Wave heights are in the range of
4-7 ft, except for higher values of 6-8 ft in the SW Caribbean
outside the gale warning area.

As for the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia
each night through Thu night. Fresh to strong northeast winds will
funnel through the Windward Passage through Thu night. Otherwise,
moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds will continue over the
tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles
through the period. Seas over these waters will slowly subside
through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening cold front extends from 31N67W southwestward to the
central Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are noted along the frontal boundary.
Overnight ASCAT data passes show fresh to strong north winds
behind the front and west to 74W, and mainly fresh north to
northeast winds west of 74W. Wave heights behind the front
are in the 6-9 ft range. The ASCAT data passes also reveal
moderate to fresh southwest winds ahead of the front north of
about 29N, where wave heights are in the range of 6-8 ft. Wave
heights elsewhere south of the front are in the 5-6 ft range,
except for lower wave heights of 2-3 ft southwest of the Bahamas.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the front
north of 29N.

As for the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will reach from
near 31N59W to 27N68W and to near the coast of Cuba by early this
afternoon, then become stationary and gradually dissipate through
Mon night. Fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front will
diminish to mainly fresh speeds Mon. A tightening gradient between
high pressure that will settle in over the area in the wake of
the front, and an approaching broad trough from the east will
bring northeast to east winds of fresh speeds over most of the
southern forecast waters from late Wed through Thu night. Fresh to
strong northeast winds are expected near and in the Windward
Passage.

Over the central part of the Atlantic, a large surface trough is
analyzed from near 30N44W to 24N48W and to 16N50W. This feature is
supported by a broad upper-level trough that stretches from an
upper-level low that is near 32N12W west-southwestward to 28N26W,
and to a base near 19N50W. Satellite imagery shows scattered
showers and thunderstorms within an area bounded from 16N to 30N
and between 40W-49W. The surface trough will gradually shift
westward through Tue. The gradient west of this trough is
allowing for generally moderate to fresh east winds over the
central Atlantic, with noted wave heights of 7-9 ft due to
northeast to east long-period swell.

To the northeast of the aforementioned surface trough, a strong
1040 mb high center is near the Azores. This feature dominates
the wind regime over the eastern Atlantic area. An overnight
altimeter data pass indicates wave heights up to 15 ft between the
Azores and the Canary Islands in an area of strong NE winds. The
1040 mb high dominates the wind regime over the eastern part of
the area. A very tight gradient there between the high and lower
pressure in the tropics is allowing for fresh to strong northeast
to east winds to exist across just about the entire eastern
Atlantic north of 13N and east of about 40W.

A lighter gradient over the central Atlantic is keeping generally
moderate to fresh east winds there, with wave heights of 7-9 ft
due to a northeast swell.

$$
Aguirre
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