[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171731
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Feb 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning: Atlantic Ocean high
pressure, combined with low pressure in  northern Colombia, will
continue to support gale-force winds pulsing offshore northern
Colombia at night through Monday night, with winds possibly
reaching 40 knots at times. The sea heights will range from 12
feet to 13 feet, the highest during the morning hours.

Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning: A cold front is expected
to move off the Texas coast and enter the western Gulf today.
Strong to near gale-force winds and building seas will follow.
Frequent gusts to gale-force are forecast for the NW Gulf,
including in the Texas coastal waters. The front is forecast to
extend from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz in Mexico by Fri
evening, with gale-force winds and building seas ranging from 6
feet to 10 feet affecting the Veracruz offshore waters on Fri
afternoon and evening. The front then will move very slowly
southeastward, gradually pushing across the basin through early
Sunday, while washing out.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of southern
Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 03N20W and 02N22W. The ITCZ
continues from 02N22W to 02N41W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to widely scattered strong in clusters is within 240 nm
to the south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 06W and 25W.
Isolated moderate is within 120 nm to the north of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ between 15W and 25W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 03N southward between 40W and 46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a
gale-force wind warning for the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge spans the southeast U.S.A., to the north of the
basin. Moderate to locally fresh return flow covers the Gulf of
Mexico. The exceptions are: fresh to strong SE winds in the NW
Gulf; and also in the SE through north central Gulf, extending
northwestward from the Straits of Florida. The sea heights range
from 9 feet to 11 feet in the NW Gulf, from 7 feet to 9 feet in
the SE through north central Gulf, and from 3 feet to 6 feet
elsewhere.

Fresh to strong return flow is noted across the NW Gulf, while
moderate to locally fresh winds is seen across the remainder of
the basin, including in the Straits of Florida. These winds are
ahead of the next cold front that is forecast to enter the
western Gulf today. Frequent gusts to gale force and high seas
are expected in the wake of the front in the NW Gulf tonight.
Sustained gale-force winds and building seas are expected in the
SW Gulf near Veracruz Fri afternoon and evening. The front will
move very slowly southeast, gradually pushing across the basin
through early Sun, while washing out. Moderate to fresh return
flow will dominate early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
pulsing gale-force wind conditions offshore Colombia.

Mainly fresh to strong winds dominate the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea, and in the Windward Passage, as a result of the
tight pressure gradient that is being induced by the strong high
pressure to the north of the area and lower pressure in
Colombia. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 9 feet, to the
east of 80W, including in the Windward Passage. The exception is
from 15N southward to the coast of Colombia, where the sea
heights have been ranging from 8 feet to 13 feet. Fresh winds,
and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 7 feet, are in the NW
Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong winds were in the immediate Lee
of Cuba earlier this morning.

The wind speeds will pulse to gale force off Colombia each night
through Mon night. Fresh to strong trade winds will cover most
of the east and central Caribbean Sea today. Fresh to strong NE
winds will funnel through the Windward Passage through Mon
night. Fresh to strong trade winds and building seas will cover
the tropical north Atlantic Ocean to the east of the Lesser
Antilles through today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N40W to 28N50W to 27N55W. A shear
line continues from 27N55W, to 24N64W and 23N73W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 90 nm to
the north of the cold front between 50W and 57W, and within 60
nm to the south of the cold front between 50W and 54W. Strong to
near gale-force NE winds and rough seas have been to the north
and northwest of the cold front/shear line boundary, at least
from 67W eastward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 10N northward from 40W eastward. A 1029 mb high pressure
center is near the Azores.

The wind speeds are mainly moderate, and the seas heights range
from 5 feet to 7 feet, from 24N northward from 40W eastward.
Fresh trade winds, with locally strong NE to E winds within a
few hundred kilometers to the east of the Lesser Antilles, near
and just west of the Cabo Verde Islands, and near and just south
and west of the Canary Islands, are in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 10 feet.

A shear line, that extends from 27N55W to 23N72W, gradually will
loose definition through the end of the week. The pressure
gradient between this boundary and a strong high pressure to the
N of it will support fresh to strong NE winds mainly in the NE
waters today. High pressure will settle into the region at the
end of the week, leading to improved conditions. A cold front is
forecast to move off northern Florida Fri night, and extend from
31N67W to the NW Bahamas on Sat night, then stall from 28N65W to
the central Bahamas on Sun night. High pressure will build
across the waters early next week.

$$
MT
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