[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170922
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Feb 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Atlantic Ocean high pressure combined
with low pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support
gales pulsing offshore northern Colombia at night through Mon
night, with winds possibly reaching 40 kt at times. The sea
heights will range from 12 feet to 13 feet, highest during the
morning hours.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to move
off the Texas coast and enter the western Gulf on Thu followed
by strong to near gale-force winds and building seas. Frequent
gusts to gale-force are forecast for the NW Gulf including the
Texas coastal waters. The front is forecast to extend from the
Florida Big Bend to Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening with gale-
force winds and building seas ranging from 6 to 10 ft affecting
the Veracruz offshore waters Fri afternoon and evening. The front
will then move very slowly southeast, gradually pushing across the
basin through early Sun while washing out.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W and extends to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to
02N23W to 02N32W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough and
ITCZ between 14W and 32W, and within 90 nm north of the ITCZ
between 17W and 24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on a
gale warning for the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure ridging is extending across the southeast U.S. north
of the basin. Moderate to locally fresh return flow is across
the basin, except for fresh to strong SE winds over the NW Gulf
and also in the SE through north-central Gulf extending northwest
from the Straits of Florida. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in the NW Gulf, 7
to 9 ft in the SE through north-central Gulf, and 3 to 6 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the next cold front is expected to enter the
western Gulf today with fresh to strong winds behind, except
frequent gusts to gale-force in the NW Gulf late Fri night, and
sustained gale-force winds in the SW Gulf near Veracruz Fri
afternoon and evening. The front will move very slowly southeast,
gradually pushing across the basin through early Sun while washing
out. Moderate to fresh return flow will dominate early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
pulsing gale conditions offshore Colombia.

Mainly fresh to strong winds dominate the eastern and central
Caribbean, as well as the Windward Passage as a result of the
tight pressure gradient induced by the strong high pressure north
of the area and lower pressure over Colombia. Seas east of 80W,
including within the Windward Passage, range from 6 to 9 ft. The
exception is south of 15N to the coast of Colombia, seas are 8 to
13 ft. Fresh winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted in the NW
Caribbean, except fresh to strong in the immediate Lee of Cuba
early this morning.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia
each night through Mon night, while strong winds will expand in
areal coverage across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea
through today. Fresh to strong NE winds will funnel through the
Windward Passage through Mon night. Fresh to strong NE winds in
the lee of Cuba will diminish through sunrise today. Otherwise,
fresh to strong trade winds and building seas will prevail over
the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles
through today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the basin near 31N42W extending SW to 26N55W
where the boundary transitions to a shear line. The shear line
extends SW to the southeastern Bahamas near 23N73W. Strong NE
winds revealed in an earlier scatterometer satellite pass and
rough seas are behind the front. Near gale force winds maybe be
north of the shearline and south of 28N between 55W and 65W. Ahead
of the front, and N of 25N, high pressure centered over the
Azores is dominating marine weather. Thus, winds are mainly
moderate and seas are 5 to 7 ft. To the S of 25N, fresh trades
dominate, with locally strong NE to E winds within a few hundred
km east of the Lesser Antilles, near and just west of the Cabo
Verde Islands, and near and just south and west of the Canary
Islands. Seas across the swath of Atlantic waters average 6 to 10
ft.

For the forecast W of 65W, the shear line will gradually loose
definition through the end of the week. Fresh to near gale-force
NE winds to the north of the boundary will continue to expand
across the region as high pressure strengthens through today. High
pressure will settle into the region at the end of the week
leading to improved conditions. A weaker cold front is forecast to
move off northern Florida Fri night and extend from 30N65W to
Andros Island Sat night, and stall from 28N65W to the central
Bahamas Sun night. High pressure will build across the waters
early next week.

$$
Lewitsky
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