[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121733
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Feb 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning: The pressure gradient
between a building central Atlantic Ocean ridge, and lower surface
pressures in Colombia and Panama, will support strong to minimal
gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea near the coast
of Colombia, mainly at night, through the middle of next week.
The wave heights are forecast to peak to a range from 12 feet to
14 feet tonight.

Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning: A strong cold front will
move off the coast of Texas early this afternoon. Gale force
northerly winds are expected behind the front offshore of Texas
this evening. The gale-force winds will move southward quickly,
to offshore Tampico in Mexico tonight, and off Veracruz on Sunday.
Strong N winds are forecast in most of the remainder of the Gulf
behind the front. Expect the front to exit the basin by Sunday
evening. The wave heights are forecast to build to 12 feet
tonight, and then reach 17 feet on Sunday off Veracruz.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W, to 03N24W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from 02N to 07N from 15W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning, that is related to the cold front of this
afternoon.

A surface trough cuts through the Gulf of Mexico, along a NE-to-SW
oriented line, from the Florida Panhandle, into the south central
Gulf off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, to the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: isolated to widely
scattered moderate rainshowers are in many areas of the Gulf of
Mexico, primarily to the west and northwest of the line that runs
from the SW coast of Florida to the NE coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet to the east
of the trough, and from 2 feet to 4 feet to the west of the
trough. Mainly gentle winds are in the northern Gulf. Gentle to
moderate wind speeds are in the southern Gulf.

The atmospheric conditions will deteriorate this afternoon with
the approach of the next strong cold front over the area. The
front will move off the coast of Texas early this afternoon. Gale
force northerly winds are expected behind the front offshore of
Texas this evening. The gales will quickly move S to offshore
Tampico, Mexico tonight and off Veracruz Sun. Strong N winds are
forecast over most of the remainder of the Gulf behind the front.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will precede the frontal
boundary. The front should exit the basin Sun evening. Conditions
will gradually improve across the Gulf by late Mon as high
pressure builds across the basin, however fresh NE winds will
continue through Tue over the SE Gulf and the Florida Straits,
increasing to strong Tue night and Wed. Fresh to strong southerly
return flow will develop over the NW Gulf by the middle of next
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning, in the coastal waters of Colombia.

Isolated moderate rainshowers span the Caribbean Sea, in the
areas of the trade wind cumulus clouds.

Fresh to strong winds are in the eastern and central Caribbean
Sea. Strong to gale-force winds are near the coast of Colombia.
Gentle to moderate tradewinds are in the NW corner. The sea
heights range from 6 feet to 9 feet in the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea, with the exception of 9-12 ft offshore Colombia.
Lower wave heights in the range from 2 feet to 4 feet are in the
NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia every night through
the middle of next week. Fresh to strong winds over the eastern
and central Caribbean will continue through early Sun. The area of
strong winds over the central Caribbean is expected to expand
again by the middle of next week. A cold front is forecast to
enter the northwest Caribbean Sun evening, generating fresh to
strong NE winds behind it through Tue with building seas. Expect
conditions to deteriorate over the Yucatan Channel by Sun
afternoon with the approaching front. The cold front will extend
from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by Mon night, where it will stall
before dissipating Tue. Fresh to strong NE winds will funnel
through the Windward Passage Mon night through the middle of next
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 31N69W 28N73W, to the Bahamas near
25N76W, to Cuba near 21N77W. Precipitation: isolated to widely
scattered moderate is within 300 nm on either side of the surface
trough. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are in the western
Atlantic, except for fresh winds to the north of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet, from 60W
westward, except sea heights ranging from 5 feet to 7 feet within
400 nm to the north of Puerto Rico.

A surface trough is along 30N37W 20N41W 07N41W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is within 400 nm to the west of the surface
trough, and elsewhere between to the east of the surface trough.
The sea heights range, mostly, from 7 feet to 10 feet from the
coasts of French Guiana and Suriname, along 06N, northward,
between the surface trough and 60W. The sea heights range, mostly,
from 7 feet to 9 feet from 10N northward from the surface trough
eastward. Some sea heights range from only 5 feet to 7 feet,
elsewhere, in those areas. The sea heights range from 4 to 6 feet
in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean, from 60W eastward.

Fresh to strong trades will pulse N of Hispaniola through Sun
night. The next cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida
early on Sun bringing fresh to strong winds are expected ahead of
and behind the front. Looking ahead, high pressure will strengthen
north of the area, causing strong NE to E winds to expand over
the entire area Tue through Wed night.

$$
MT
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