[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Feb 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a
building central Atlantic Ocean ridge, and lower surface
pressures in Colombia and Panama, will support strong to minimal
gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea near the
coast of Colombia, mainly at night, through the middle of next
week. The wave heights are forecast to peak to 12-14 ft tonight.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off
the coast of Texas early this afternoon. Gale force northerly
winds are expected behind the front offshore of Texas this
evening. The gales will quickly move S to offshore Tampico,
Mexico tonight and off Veracruz Sun. Strong N winds are forecast
over most of the remainder of the Gulf behind the front. The front
should exit the basin by Sun evening. The wave heights are
forecast to build to 12 ft tonight, then reach 17 ft Sun off
Veracruz.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near
07N11W to 06N15W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N24W to
01.5N40W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
04N to 06N between 08W and 14W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please read
the Special Features section for details.

A ridge is leading to mainly gentle winds over the northern Gulf
and gentle to moderate over the southern Gulf. However, a
moistening atmosphere in advance of a cold front located over
Texas is providing scattered showers and tstorms over the central
Gulf of Mexico, north of 24N between 85W-95W. Seas are 1 to 2 ft
over the northern Gulf and 2 to 4 ft over the southern Gulf.

As for the forecast, a strong cold front will move off the coast
of Texas early this afternoon. Gale force northerly winds are
expected behind the front offshore of Texas this evening. The
gales will quickly move S to offshore Tampico, Mexico tonight and
off Veracruz Sun. Strong N winds are forecast over most of the
remainder of the Gulf behind the front. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will precede the frontal boundary. The front should
exit the basin Sun evening. Conditions will gradually improve
across the Gulf by late Mon as high pressure builds across the
basin, however fresh NE winds will continue through Tue over the
SE Gulf and the Florida Straits, increasing to strong Tue night
and Wed. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop over
the NW Gulf by the middle of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean near
the coast of Colombia. Please read the Special Features section
for details.

Trade wind cumulus may be producing isolated showers over the NE
Caribbean from the Virgin Islands to Haiti. A few showers and
tstorms are noted over the NW basin between the Isle of Youth and
the Cayman Islands. Otherwise, mid to upper-level ridging,
especially over the eastern part of the basin, is producing
subsidence and relatively dry air.

Fresh to strong winds are occurring over the eastern and central
Caribbean, with strong to gale force winds near the coast of
Colombia. Gentle to moderate trades are noted over the NW
Caribbean. Wave heights of 6-9 ft are in the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea, with the exception of 9-12 ft offshore Colombia.
Lower wave heights of 2-4 ft are over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.

As for the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia
every night through the middle of next week. Fresh to strong winds
will continue over the eastern and central Caribbean through
early Sun. The area of strong winds over the central Caribbean is
expected to expand again by the middle of next week. A cold front
is forecast to enter the northwest Caribbean Sun evening,
generating fresh to strong NE winds behind it through Tue, with
building seas. The cold front will extend from eastern Cuba to NE
Honduras by Mon night, where it will stall before dissipating Tue.
Fresh to strong NE winds will funnel through the Windward Passage
Mon night through the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front is analyzed from 31N69W to 22N77W.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the front. Mainly
gentle to moderate winds prevail over the western Atlantic, except
for fresh north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Seas are 2-5 ft
west of 72W, and 6-8 ft north of Puerto Rico.

Farther east, a surface trough remains over the eastern Atlantic
and extends from 26N39W to 08N41W. Broken to overcast multilayer
clouds, with embedded areas of moderate rain and isolated tstorms
are noted near the surface trough eastward to near 20W. Fresh to
strong winds are occurring over a large portion of the eastern and
central Atlantic on both sides of the trough. Seas are 8-10 ft in
this area, mainly from 07N-30N between 30W-60W. The remainder of
the Atlantic waters are under the influence of a 1031 mb high
pressure located near 35N30W.

As for the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned weakening
stationary front will dissipate early this morning. Fresh to
strong trades will pulse N of Hispaniola through Sun night. The
next cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida early on Sun
and extend from 31N68W to east-central Cuba near 22N78W early
Mon, and from 28N65W to eastern Cuba Mon evening. Fresh to strong
winds are expected ahead of and behind the front. Looking ahead,
high pressure will strengthen north of the area, causing strong NE
to E winds to expand over the entire area Tue through Wed night.
This will produce large seas over the entire western and central
Atlantic for the middle of next week.

$$
Hagen
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