[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 140856
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142021
400 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

Radar and surface observations indicate that Nicholas has continued
to move slowly inland and has weakened during the past few hours,
with the strongest winds now located near southern Galveston Bay.
The initial wind speed is set to 60 kt, perhaps generously.
Additional weakening is anticipated as Nicholas moves over land,
with increasing southwesterly shear also assisting this process.
No significant changes were made to the intensity forecast.

The storm is moving north-northeastward at about 8 kt, and should
gradually turn northeastward and eastward during the next day or so.
Nicholas is likely to slow to a crawl over Louisiana on Wednesday
as it loses any significant steering.  The new track forecast is
similar to the previous one, but a smidge faster. While the exact
track is tough to pin down due to inconsistent model forecasts,
most guidance shows a significant flash flood risk along the
Gulf Coast during the next couple of days.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will impact areas from the upper coast of Texas,
across Louisiana, southern Mississippi and far southern Alabama
through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are
expected, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening flash
and urban flooding across these areas.  Minor to isolated major
river flooding is also possible in smaller river basins and urban
areas.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of Texas from Sargent to Sabine Pass. Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Tropical Storm Warning
area along the Texas coast today and along the southwestern
Louisiana coast by afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 29.3N  95.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 12H  14/1800Z 29.9N  95.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 24H  15/0600Z 30.3N  94.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  15/1800Z 30.4N  93.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  16/0600Z 30.4N  92.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 60H  16/1800Z 30.5N  92.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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