[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 140305
TCDAT4

Hurricane Nicholas Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142021
1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

Very recently, a WeatherFlow Station at Matagorda Bay, Texas,
reported sustained winds of 66 kt with a gust to 83 kt.  Based on
this observation, Nicholas is being upgraded to a hurricane on this
advisory, and a Hurricane Warning is issued.  No additional
strengthening is anticipated until the system makes landfall, and
gradual weakening is expected during the next 2-3 days while
Nicholas moves over southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana.

Nicholas is moving north-northeastward, or around 020/10 kt.  The
system is currently moving through a weakness in the mid-level
subtropical ridge.  Within 12 to 24 hours, after Nicholas has moved
inland, the ridge is forecast to weaken and leave Nicholas in an
area of light steering currents.  As a result, during the next
couple of days, the cyclone is expected to turn eastward and slow to
a crawl near southwestern Louisiana.  The official forecast is
slower than the previous one, but not as slow as the new model
consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of southeastern Texas,
Louisiana, and southern Mississippi through the middle of the week.
Significant rainfall amounts are expected, potentially resulting in
areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along the
eastern Texas coast into southwestern Louisiana.  Minor to isolated
major river flooding is also possible in smaller river basins and
urban areas.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to Sabine Pass.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area and Tropical storm conditions are expected with
the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Texas coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 28.4N  95.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 29.6N  95.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 24H  15/0000Z 30.2N  94.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  15/1200Z 30.3N  93.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  16/0000Z 30.3N  93.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 60H  16/1200Z 30.3N  93.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  17/0000Z 30.5N  92.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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