[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Tropical Storm Nicholas Local Statement Advisory Number 6
National Weather Service Brownsville TX  AL142021
1010 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

This product covers The Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas

**NICHOLAS MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Storm Surge Watch has been cancelled for Coastal Cameron,
      Coastal Kenedy, and Coastal Willacy

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Coastal Cameron,
      Coastal Kenedy, and Coastal Willacy

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 50 miles northeast of Brownsville TX or about 40 miles
      east-southeast of Port Mansfield TX
    - 26.4N 96.8W
    - Storm Intensity 60 mph
    - Movement North or 5 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Nicholas, currently just northeast of Brownsville,
continues to move northward, although very erratically. Nicholas is
still expected to make landfall along the middle Texas coast this
afternoon or this evening. The biggest impact across the lower Texas
coast remains rainfall, more beneficial than concerning to this point,
with additional rainfall of generally 1 to 2 inches. Tropical Storm
force wind gusts are still possible into the afternoon, especially near
any bands of showers near South Padre Island or Boca Chica. Storm
surge has likely peaked at South Padre Island, but inundation remains
possible, generally at 1 to 2 feet, with an isolated 3 feet. Minor
coastal flooding or run- up to the dunes is likely leading into high
tide tonight.


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across
coastal to central portions of deep south Texas. Remain well guarded
against dangerous flood waters having possible significant impacts.
If realized, these impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swift
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals,
      arroyos, and ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still possible across
across western portions of deep south Texas. Remain well guarded
against locally hazardous flood waters having possible limited
impacts.

* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding across
South Padre Island. Remain well sheltered from dangerous wind having
possible significant impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges and access routes
      impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Potential impacts from the main wind event are also now unfolding
across the lower Texas coast. Remain well sheltered from hazardous
wind having possible limited impacts.

Elsewhere across The Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas, little
to no impact is anticipated.

* SURGE:
Potential impacts from the main surge event are now unfolding across
the lower Texas coast. Remain well away from locally hazardous surge
having possible limited impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and exposed parking lots could
      become covered with some surge water. Driving conditions
      dangerous in places where surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

* TORNADOES:
Potential impacts from tornadoes are still unfolding across the lower
Texas coast. Remain well braced against a tornado event having possible
limited impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across The Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas, little
to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local officials for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to stay inside and away from windows. Listen for
updates and be ready in case you lose electrical power. Keep a battery-
powered radio, charged cell phone and flashlight handy.

Keep your cell phone charged and in power-saving mode. If you lose
power, use it sparingly and mainly for personal emergencies and
check- ins.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Brownsville TX around 4 PM CDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Hallman
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