[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement
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Mon Sep 13 04:11:19 CDT 2021
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Local Statement Advisory Number 5
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX AL142021
410 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021
This product covers Southeast Texas
**NICHOLAS FORECAST TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND GUSTY WINDS AS IT MAKES LANDFALL ON TEXAS GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning for Fort Bend and Wharton counties.
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Storm Surge Warning, Tropical Storm Warning, and Hurricane
Watch are in effect for Brazoria Islands, Coastal Brazoria,
Coastal Jackson, Coastal Matagorda, and Matagorda Islands
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Austin, Colorado,
Inland Harris, Northern Liberty, and Waller
- A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect
for Bolivar Peninsula, Chambers, Coastal Galveston, Coastal
Harris, and Galveston Island
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Fort Bend, Inland
Brazoria, Inland Galveston, Southern Liberty, and Wharton
- A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
Inland Jackson and Inland Matagorda
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 280 miles south-southwest of Galveston TX or about 220
miles south of Matagorda TX
- 25.5N 96.6W
- Storm Intensity 60 mph
- Movement North-northwest or 345 degrees at 14 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
After its center reformed significantly further north earlier tonight,
Tropical Storm Nicholas continues to track north- northwestward over
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to continue this
motion as it approaches the Texas coast over the next 12-24 hours,
with modest continued strengthening. It is currently forecast to make
landfall along the middle Texas coast as a tropical storm tonight.
Because of the center reformation, the new track has prompted the
addition of Wharton and Fort Bend counties to the tropical storm
warning. Sustained winds, or frequent gusts to around 40 mph or higher
are expected in the warning area, with the strongest winds expected at
the coast.
This system has the potential to bring widespread and significant
heavy rainfall to portions of Southeast Texas, particularly along the
coast. Rainfall amounts in excess of 10-15 inches with isolated higher
totals are expected through the end of the day on Tuesday in some
locations. Rather than fall in an even distribution, heavy rainfall
will put down significant totals in relatively short periods, which
enhances the threat of flash flooding. Where the rainfall threat is
highest, a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect. Additionally, 2-4 feet
of storm surge is expected as the system approaches the coastline.
This will result in areas of coastal flooding, particularly during
high tide. A storm surge warning remains in effect below San Luis
Pass, with a storm surge watch above San Luis Pass.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
devastating impacts across the Southeast Texas Coastal Plain. Potential
impacts include:
- Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks
in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks,
canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. Flood control
systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape
routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water
with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very
dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened
or washed out.
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
significant to extensive impacts across inland Southeast Texas.
* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across the Southeast Texas Gulf Coast. Potential impacts in this area
include:
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
in areas with above ground lines.
Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across inland Southeast Texas.
* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across the Texas Gulf Coast around Matagorda Bay. Potential impacts in
this area include:
- Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
- Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
spots.
- Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
numerous rip currents.
- Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages.
Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across the upper Texas Gulf Coast.
Elsewhere across Southeast Texas, little to no impact is anticipated.
* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across coastal Southeast Texas. Potential impacts include:
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
pulled from moorings.
Elsewhere across Southeast Texas, little to no impact is anticipated.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended
preparedness actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to
evacuate, do so immediately.
For those not under evacuation orders, assess
the risk from wind, falling trees, and flooding at your location. If
you decide to move, relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do
not relocate, help keep roadways open for those under evacuation
orders.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.
Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.
Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!
Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Houston/Galveston TX around 10 AM CDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.
$$
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