[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072302
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Sep 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Larry at 07/2100 UTC is near 25.1N 56.3W, about
621 nm SE of Bermuda. The estimated minimum central pressure
is 965 mb. Larry is moving NW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds
100 kt gusts 120 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection
extend 100 nm in the north semicircle and 90 nm in the S
semicircle. Seas are peaking at 40 to 42 ft near the center.
Large swells generated by Larry will continue to propagate
across the forecast waters, with 8 ft or greater seas reaching
70W by Wed, and 75W on Thu. Seas are peaking at 38 to 40 ft near
the center. For more information, please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the
Forecast/Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 32N from 16N southward and
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 05N to 13N between 31W and 37W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 15N southward
across French Guiana into N central Brazil, and moving W at
around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from
05N to 07N between 50W and 56W.

A third tropical wave is along 87W from E of Belize at 17N
southward across Honduras into the E Pacific Ocean, and moving W
near 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
present across S Belize and waters N of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The N Africa monsoon trough passes through the coast of Mauritania
near 16N16W to near the Cape Verde Islands at 13N24W. Latest
scatterometer indicate the ITCZ begins from 08N25W to 07N32W,
and from 07N35W to 06N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is found S of the monsoon trough from 07N to 17N
between the African coast and 23W. Scattered moderate convection
is evident near the ITCZ from 07N to 09N between 28W and 31W, and
farther W from 05N to 08N between 42W and 52W.

The E Pacific monsoon trough extends from the northern coast of
Colombia westward and reaches Costa Rica near 10N83W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are occurring S of 13N between 73W to
83W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough reaches east-northeastward from a 1011 mb low
pressure centered near 24N92W and the trough extends from 25N91W
to 22N94W. Enhanced by an upper-level low in the vicinity near
24N94W, numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are noted
from the Yucatan Peninsula near 20N to 28N between 84W and 92W.
Gentle to moderate winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are present near
this area. For the rest of the Gulf, light to gentle winds and
seas of 1 to 3 ft are present.

For the forecast, showers and thunderstorms have increased today
over the south-central Gulf of Mexico in association with a
surface trough and an upper-level disturbance. The system is
expected to move slowly northeastward over the central and
northeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days.
Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for development, but
they are forecast to become more conducive for some limited
tropical or subtropical cyclone development as the system nears
the northern Gulf coast on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Aside
from this low pressure, high pressure will continue to bring
light to gentle winds and slight seas through Fri. Winds and seas
could be higher near thunderstorms.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are producing scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms across the N basin from 15N to 17N between 83W and
87W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections
above for additional convection across the basin.

Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present across
the E and central basin. Light to gentle trades and seas at 3 to 4
ft prevail the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, major Hurricane Larry will continue to move
farther north of the area into late week. Swells generated by
Hurricane Larry will continue to propagate across the Atlantic
waters of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through
Wed night into Thu. Seas will gradually subside from E to W.
Elsewhere, mainly moderate trade winds will persist, pulsing to
fresh winds off Colombia mainly at night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for more information
on major Hurricane Larry.

A surface trough curves east-northeastward from N of the Bahamas
at 28N75W to SW of Bermuda at 30N65W. Aided by a mid-level low
near 28N69W, Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
flaring up off between the Florida coast to the Bahamas near
28N76W, and E of the Bahamas from 25N to 28N between 67W and
76W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
sections above for additional convection across the Atlantic
Basin.

A surface ridge extends west-southwestward from the 1021 mb Azores
high through another 1016 mb high S of Bermuda at 25N66W to central
Florida. Outside the influence of Larry, light to gentle winds
and seas at 4 to 8 ft are present N of 17N between 20W and
Bahamas/Leeward Islands. Light S to WSW winds and seas of 2 to 4
ft are found N of 26N between the Bahamas and Georgia-Florida
coast. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are
found NE of the Cape Verde Islands from 15N to 27N between the NW
African coast and 20W. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 4
to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast W of 65W, Hurricane Larry near 25.1N 56.3W 965 mb
at 5 PM EDT moving NW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 100 kt
gusts 120 kt. Larry will move to 26.5N 57.4W Wed morning, 28.3N
58.8W Wed afternoon, 30.5N 60.5W Thu morning, 33.3N 61.7W Thu
afternoon, 36.8N 61.2W Fri morning, and 41.7N 58.2W Fri
afternoon. Larry will become extratropical as it moves to near
53.0N 48.0W Sat afternoon. Large swells generated by Larry will
continue to propagate across the forecast waters, with 8 ft or
greater seas reaching 70W by Wed, and 75W on Thu.

$$ Torres
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