[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Sep 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Major Hurricane Larry at 07/1500 UTC is at 24.4N
55.6W, about 420 nm SE of Bermuda. Larry is moving toward the NW
or 315 degrees at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is
967 mb. The maximum sustained winds are 100 knots with gusts to
120 knots. Seas are peaking at 38 to 40 ft near the center.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring near the
center from 22N to 26N between 53W and 57W. For more information,
please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the
Forecast/Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 32N from 16N southward and
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 05N to 13N between 31W and 37W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 15N southward
across French Guiana into N central Brazil, and moving W at
around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from
05N to 07N between 50W and 56W.

A third tropical wave is along 87W from E of Belize at 17N
southward across Honduras into the E Pacific Ocean, and moving W
near 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
present across S Belize and waters N of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The N Africa monsoon trough passes through the coast of Mauritania
near 17N16W to near the Cape Verde Islands at 16N25W. The ITCZ
extends westward from 08N26W to 08N31W, and from 07N34W to 06N52W.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is found S of the
monsoon trough from 08N to 15N between the African coast and 21W.
Scattered moderate convection is evident near the ITCZ from 07N
to 09N between 25W and 31W, and farther W from 05N to 08N between
44W and 50W.

The eastern end of the E Pacific monsoon trough reaches eastward
across the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border across the SW Caribbean
Sea into N Colombia. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
occurring from central Nicaragua eastward across the SW Caribbean
to N Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough reaches east-northeastward from a low pressure
near the central Gulf at 23N93W to 24N91W. Enhanced by an upper-
level low in the vicinity near 24N94W, numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms are noted from 20N to 26N between 86W and
94W. Gentle to moderate winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are present
near this area. Across the N central Gulf, a weakening stationary
front curves east-northeastward from the SE Texas coast across
New Orleans and the Florida Panhandle. Modest convergent SW to W
winds to the S of this feature are triggering scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms over the NE Gulf and the Big Band area of
Florida. For the rest of the Gulf, light to gentle winds and seas
of 1 to 3 ft are present.

For the forecast, disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
S central Gulf are associated with a surface trough and an upper-
level disturbance. The system is expected to move slowly
northeastward over the central and NE Gulf during the next couple
of days. Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for
development, but they are forecast to become marginally conducive
for some limited development as the system nears the N Gulf coast
on Wed and Wed night. Aside from this low pressure, high pressure
will bring light to gentle winds and slight seas through Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are producing scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms across the N basin from 15N to 17N between 66W and
78W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections
above for additional convection across the basin.

Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present across
the E and central basin. Light to gentle trades and seas at 3 to 4
ft prevail the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, major Hurricane Larry will continue to move
farther north of the area into late week. Associated moderate to
large swell will continue to move into the region through mid
week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trade winds will persist, pulsing
to fresh winds off Colombia mainly at night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for more information
on major Hurricane Larry.

A surface trough curves east-northeastward from N of the Bahamas
at 28N75W to SW of Bermuda at 31N66W. Aided by a mid-level low
near 28N69W, Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
flaring up off the Florida coast within 40 nm of 29N78W, and E of
the Bahamas from 25N to 31N between 67W and 74W. Refer to the
Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections above for
additional convection across the Atlantic Basin.

A surface ridge extends west-southwestward from the 1021 mb Azores
high through another 1017 mb high S of Bermuda at 26N66W to
central Florida. Outside the influence of Larry, light to gentle
winds and seas at 4 to 8 ft are present N of 17N between 20W and
Bahamas/Leeward Islands. Light S to WSW winds and seas of 2 to 4
ft are found N of 26N between the Bahamas and Georgia-Florida
coast. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are
found NE of the Cape Verde Islands from 15N to 27N between the NW
African coast and 20W. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 4 to
5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast W of 65W, Hurricane Larry is near 24.4N 55.6W,
967 mb at 11 AM EDT or 1500 UTC and moving NW at 8 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts 120 kt. Larry will move to
25.6N 56.6W this evening, 27.3N 58.1W Wed morning, 29.3N 59.9W Wed
evening, 31.8N 61.3W Thu morning, 34.9N 61.8W Thu evening, and
39.0N 60.0W Fri morning. Larry will become extratropical as it
moves to near 50.0N 50.0W early Sat. Large swell generated by
Larry will continue to propagate across the forecast waters, with
8 ft or greater seas reaching 70W by Wed, and 75W on Thu..

$$

Chan
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