[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311728
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jul 31 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: A Gale Warning for the Meteo-France marine
areas of Agadir and Canarias is in effect through at least
01/1200 UTC. N to NE winds of Force 8 on the Beaufort Scale and
8-12 ft seas are expected. Please see the High Seas Forecast
issued by Meteo-France at gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 28W from 20N
southward. Scattered showers are noted from 05N to 10N between 24W
and 34W.

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 39W from 16N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from
05N to 10N between 34W and 40W.

A Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 70W from 20N
southward into W Venezuela, moving W at 15-20 kt. No convection
is noted with the wave at this time.

Another Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 87W from 20N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from the coast of Honduras north to 18N between 83W and the
coast of Belize.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 12N25W to 07N39W. At this time, there are no segments of the
ITCZ analyzed in the tropical Atlantic. In addition to the showers noted
in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is
noted near the monsoon trough from 12N to 15N east of 18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a trough is analyzed in the Bay of Campeche from
21N94W inland over Veracruz and Chiapas, Mexico to 17N93W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted in the W Bay of Campeche
from 18N to 21N west of the trough axis. An area of scattered
moderate convection is noted in the north central Gulf, from 28N
to the US coast between 86W and 90W. A 1019 mb high pressure is
analyzed in the central Gulf near 25N91W. Light to gentle
anticyclonic flow prevails over the Gulf, except in the eastern
Bay of Campeche where E winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 1-3
ft throughout the basin.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will dominate the Gulf
region during the weekend and early next week. Gentle to moderate
winds will prevail through early next week. Moderate to fresh
winds will pulse off the Yucatan during late evening through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
tropical waves in the Caribbean Sea.

The pressure gradient between the subtropical high and East
Pacific Monsoon Trough is supporting fresh to locally strong
trades in the west-central Caribbean, with seas of 6-10 ft.
Scattered moderate convection associated with the East Pacific
Monsoon Trough is noted in the SW Caribbean from 10N to 12N west
of 81W. Elsewhere in the basin, gentle to moderate trades prevail
with 4-7 ft seas in the E Caribbean and 3-6 ft seas in the NW
Caribbean.

For the forecast, the Azores high extending a ridge to the
northern Caribbean will continue to support fresh to strong trade
winds in the central and portions of the SW basin through Mon when
the ridge will start to weaken. Moderate to locally fresh winds
will dominate elsewhere through the forecast period. Otherwise, a
tropical wave crossing Central America will continue to support
scattered showers and tstms in the Gulf of Honduras through Sun
morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the special features section for information on the
East Atlantic Gale Warning.

An expansive 1032 mb high pressure system near the Azores
dominates the tropical Atlantic. A trough is analyzed in the
central Atlantic from 24N48W to 18N47W with no significant
convection noted at this time. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to
strong NE winds from 25N to 31N east of 18W, surrounding the
aforementioned gale warned area. Elsewhere in the basin, gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow prevails. Seas are 3-5 ft in tropical
Atlantic west of 70W, and 5-7 ft in the remainder of the
discussion waters.

For the forecast west of 65W, the Azores high will continue to
extend a ridge across the region and support moderate to fresh E
winds S of 24N and S to SW winds of the same magnitude N of 28N
through the forecast period. Otherwise, scattered showers are
expected over the NW offshore waters through early next week..

$$
Mahoney
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