[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jul 31 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has a Gale Warning for
the marine areas of Agadir and Canaries for N to NE gale winds in
effect from 1200 UTC Jul 31 to at least 1200 UTC Aug 1 at least.
Expect rough seas with temporarily very rough seas. Some sand haze
is also possible. See the Metarea II forecast from Meteo- France
at gmdss.org/II.html .

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 37W from 16N southward,
moving W around 10 kt. The wave is surrounded by dry and dusty
Saharan Air Layer, inhibiting the development of showers and
thunderstorms.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has an axis along 64W from
19N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 11N to 18N between 61W and 67W.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has an axis long 85W from
20N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 12N to 18N between 83W and 88W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to
12N27W to 07N39W. At this time, there are no segments of the ITCZ
analyzed in the tropical Atlantic. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 04N to 15N E of 39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic extends westward across
the Gulf of Mexico. A trough extends across the eastern Bay of
Campeche from 21N91W to 19N92W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted in the Bay of Campeche, S of 24N between 91W and 96W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted in the
northern Gulf, N of 28N between 85W and 90W. Light to gentle
breezes prevail across the Gulf with moderate easterly winds in
the Bay of Campeche. Seas 2 to 4 ft are noted in the eastern Bay
of Campeche and 1-3 ft in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge ridge will dominate the Gulf
region during the weekend and early next week. Gentle to moderate
winds will prevail through early next week. Moderate to fresh
winds will pulse off the Yucatan during late evening through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
tropical waves in the Caribbean Sea.

A moderate pressure gradient from a surface ridge north of the
Caribbean to lower pressure over northern South America is
supporting fresh to strong E trades over the central Caribbean.
Scatterometer satellite pass from overnight showed moderate to
fresh E trades in the NE Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere
in the basin, gentle to moderate breezes are noted. Seas are 8 to
10 ft over the central Caribbean and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. Outside
of the convection associated with the tropical waves, dry air
prevails across the basin, resulting in fairly tranquil weather
conditions.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades over the central
Caribbean will continue through early Mon. Expect trades to become
fresh to locally strong Mon through Wed. Fresh winds will pulse
in the Gulf of Honduras on Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive 1031 mb high pressure system near the Azores
dominates the tropical Atlantic and is providing fairly tranquil
weather conditions. Isolated thunderstorms are noted off the
Florida coast, from 24N to 30N and W of 78W. Gentle to moderate
southerly winds prevail across the SW N Atlantic with seas 2 to 3
ft. A trough extends across the central Atlantic from 24N48W to
18N45W with no significant convection associated with it. The
overnight scatterometer satellite data depicted fresh trades north
of Puerto Rico. The ridge is supporting moderate or weaker winds
with seas 3 to 6 ft.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure ridging along 26N
will change little into early next week. Expect fresh to locally
strong east winds to pulse during the late afternoons off the
northern coast of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward
Passage, this weekend. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds
are expected off the NE Florida coast Sun night through Wed.

$$
AReinhart
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