[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jul 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 04N to 20N
with axis near 27W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is embedded
within the Saharan Air Layer, which is hindering convection at
this time.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean extending S of 17N with
axis near 63W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Strong vertical shear and
some low level dry air are limiting convection to isolated
showers to S of 17W and E of 65W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean extending S of 20N
with axis near 75W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Upper level divergence
is supporting scattered showers and isolated tstms over
Hispaniola and its adjacent waters.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean extending S of 21N with
axis near 84W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered to isolated
showers are over Nicaragua and Costa Rica adjacent waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 07N30W to 08N42W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N42W to 08N55W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is from 03N to 10N between 16W and 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient across the basin supports light to
gentle variable winds across the gulf with seas in the 1 to 3 ft
range. A middle to upper level low over the western basin
supports scattered to isolated showers over the NE Mexico
adjacent waters. Over the eastern half of the basin, a col of low
pressure supports similar shower activity on the SE gulf.

Atlantic high pressure will begin to build westward into the
Gulf region Wed and Thu. Otherwise, a surface trough will come
off the Yucatan peninsula at night supporting moderate to fresh
winds in the Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Three tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean supporting
some localized shower activity. Aside from showers, two of these
waves are supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the
eastern and central Caribbean with seas to 5 ft. See the
tropical waves section for further details.

These conditions will prevail and expand to the SW Caribbean by
Tue night as the Atlantic ridge builds westward and into the
northern Caribbean waters. This will result in the development
of fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean as well
as the Gulf of Honduras through early in the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge dominates the subtropical Atlantic waters and
supports and provides mostly fair weather with gentle to moderate
winds and seas in the 3 to 5 ft range. Otherwise, diffluent flow
aloft supports scattered showers NE of the Bahamas.

A 1011 mb low pressure center is over SE Georgia adjacent waters.
Development of this system is no longer likely before the low
moves inland over Georgia tonight. A broad inverted trough will
enter the waters N of Puerto Rico Tue night and move westward
and across the Bahamas through Thu night.

$$
Ramos
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