[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jul 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1705 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W, south of 20N, moving
W at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave at
this time.

A Caribbean tropical wave along 63W, south of 16N, moving W at
15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave at this
time.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, from western Haiti to
northern Colombia, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted within 270 nm of the wave axis
from 13N to 16N and between 72W and 79W. The wave is also
enhancing the development of showers and thunderstorms over
eastern Colombia and western Venezuela.

A Caribbean tropical wave is exiting the Caribbean Sea along 84W,
from south of western Cuba to Costa Rica, moving W at 10 kt.
Convection associated with this wave is confined to near the
monsoon trough, S of 12N and is described below.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast of
The Gambia near 13N17W to 09N41W. The ITCZ continues from 09N42W
to 09N57W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted within 200 nm of either side the monsoon trough and ITCZ.
The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from off the coast of
Panama near 11N79W to near the Costa Rica/Panama border near
09N83W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the
southeast Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica coasts.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from near Sarasota, Florida to the
southeast Gulf near 24N87W. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms are noted within 100 nm on either side of the
trough. Light to gentle winds and 1-2 ft prevail across the
basin.

For the forecast, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
will persist south of the trough through tonight as it drifts
westward. Atlantic high pressure will begin to build westward into
the Gulf basin Wed and Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Surface observations and recent scatterometer satellite data
showed gentle to moderate trade winds across the central and
eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds were noted in the western
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. Seas were 2-4 ft in the
central and eastern Caribbean, with 1-2 ft elsewhere. The trade
wind flow is lighter than usual, related in part to a relatively
weaker subtropical ridge north of the area.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds are expected
through Wed. The exception will be moderate to locally fresh winds
near the coast of Colombia. Winds will increase across the E and
central Caribbean Wed night into Fri as the Atlantic ridge builds
westward in the wake of a trough moving westward across the Atlc
waters north of the Greater Antilles.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1011 mb low pressure is located near 30N81W, 35 nm E of
Jacksonville, Florida. Most of the convection is located to the
west of the center, affecting the coast of northeast Florida and
inland southwest Georgia. Development of this system has become
less likely before it moves inland later today or tonight.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted between
Bermuda and Hispaniola, from 20N to 31N and betwen 65W and 71W.
This activity is due to upper level divergence and tropical
moisture flowing northward. Further east, scatterometer data
captured the surface trough along 51W, from 16N to 29N. The
surface trough is not producing convection as it is surrounded by
dry and dusty Saharan Air Layer. An expansive 1031 mb high
pressure near the Azores is causing gentle to locally moderate
winds and seas 4 to 6 ft across the central and western Atlantic.
Fresh to strong winds are found surrounding the Canary Islands and
off the coast of Morocco, resulting in seas 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, an elongated area of showers and thunderstorms
will continue to spread north and northwestward across the waters
E of 75W through tonight. A broad inverted trough will enter the
SE waters Tue night and move westward and across the Bahamas
through Thu night.

$$
DELGADO/MORA
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