[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201027
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jul 20 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 24W and
south of 17N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted across the southern portion of the wave south of 10N
between 22W-31W.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends it axis along 45W from 20N
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is moving
through an area of large-scale subsidence therefore, no deep
convective precipitation is associated with it.

The northern extension of a tropical wave extends across Central
America reaching the west Caribbean. The wave axis extends along
85W and south of 19N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
showers are noted south of 10N between 82W-88W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N17W to 07N47W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N47W to 07N58W. Scattered showers prevail south of
10N and east of 18W, and within 200 nm on either side of the
monsoon trough mainly between 30W-40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin extending along 27N.
Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle anticyclonic winds
prevailing across the basin. An outflow boundary extends along 30N
and west of 91W enhancing convection across the far north Gulf
waters north of 28N and west of 90W.

For the forecast...as the ridge sinks southward during the next
few days, tranquil conditions will prevail across the basin. No
tropical cyclone activity is expected over Gulf through the week.


...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical
wave moving across the basin.

Over the southwest Caribbean, the monsoon trough extends along
10N between 76W-83W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along
the trough mainly south of 10N. Scatterometer data depicts fresh
to strong trades prevailing across the south central portion of
the basin south of 18N between 70W-82W, while gentle to moderate
trades prevail elsewhere.

The Bermuda High north of the area combined with low
pressure N Colombia will continue to support fresh to strong NE
to E winds over the central Caribbean through most of the week.
Expect an increase in areal coverage of strong wind speeds
through Wed night, reaching as far north as Hispaniola adjacent
waters. Winds near the coast of NE Colombia and the Gulf of
Venezuela will pulse to near-gale force at times, through Thu
morning. Fresh to strong E winds will occur in the afternoons and
early evenings in the Windward Passage through midweek. Fresh to
strong winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Wed
night and Thu night. No tropical cyclone activity is expected
through the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical
waves moving across the basin.

A surface ridge passes extends along 27N across the basin. Light
to gentle winds, and sea heights of 2 to 4 ft prevail from 25N
northward. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds, and sea heights
of 4 to 6 ft have been in the waters from 10N to 25N. Fresh winds
and sea heights from 4 to 6 ft prevail from 20N to 24N between 71W
and 77W. Gentle to moderate trade winds, and sea heights ranging
from 3 to 5 ft cover the remainder of the basin.

Fresh to strong E winds will pulse in the afternoons
and evenings north of Hispaniola for the next several days.
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere south of 22N.
Surface ridging associated with the Bermuda High will slowly
sink southward to 27N by midweek, leading toward quiescent
conditions across the remainder of the western Atlantic. No
tropical cyclone activity is expected through the week.

$$
ERA
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