[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jul 20 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W/23W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. The Hovmoller Diagram has
been showing the westward propagation of the wave. The Tropical
Wave Diagnostics and the TPW also support the presence of the
wave. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
possible rainshowers are from the monsoon trough to 16N within 300
nm on either side of the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: this wave is
moving through an area of large-scale subsidence. Isolated
moderate is within 120 nm to the east of the tropical wave from
10N to 12N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The tropical wave is
moving through the eastern sections of Central America, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 300 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

A tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, along 93W, from 21N southward, moving westward 10 knots.
Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
possible rainshowers are from 20N to 23N between 93W and the coast
of Mexico. Precipitation: warming cloud top temperatures,
convective debris clouds, and some remaining rainshowers cover the
Yucatan Peninsula from 20N southward. Scattered moderate to strong
is inland, from 17N to 18N between 94W and 95W in the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of The Gambia,
to 10N23W, 11N29W, 08N40W, 07N44W, 07N46W. The ITCZ continues from
07N46W, to 07N49W and to 07N58W in the coastal waters of Guyana.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 05N to 12N between 12W and 17W; isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere from 16N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, along 93W, from 21N southward, moving westward 10 knots.
Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
possible rainshowers are from 20N to 23N between 93W and the coast
of Mexico. Precipitation: warming cloud top temperatures,
convective debris clouds, and some remaining rainshowers cover the
Yucatan Peninsula from 20N southward. Scattered moderate to strong
is inland, from 17N to 18N between 94W and 95W in the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

An outflow boundary is inland in Texas. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong in clusters is in the coastal plains
and coastal waters from SW Louisiana to the middle Texas Gulf
coast. Broken to overcast high level clouds are within 150 nm of
the coast of the U.S.A. Gulf coast states.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A
surface ridge passes through central Florida, toward the coast
of Mexico near 24N98W. The surface pressure pattern is flat and
weak.

A surface ridge extends from the Bermuda High, westward along
30N, and toward the Florida Peninsula. The ridge will continue to
move southward through the forecast period. Expect tranquil
conditions across the Gulf of Mexico for the remainder of the
week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds will pulse on Wednesday
night, to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula., through the end of the
week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The tropical wave is
moving through the eastern sections of Central America, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 300 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

The monsoon trough is along 10N, from Colombia beyond Costa Rica,
into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: earlier convective
precipitation, that was in Colombia within 180 nm to the south of
the monsoon trough, has been dissipating during the last few
hours.

The southwestern end of an upper level trough, from the Atlantic
Ocean near 29N67W, is reaching Cuba and Jamaica. Precipitation:
isolated moderate rainshowers are around Cuba, Hispaniola,
Jamaica, the Windward Passage, and the Bahamas.

Expect E winds from 20 to 30 knots, and sea heights ranging from
8 feet to 10 feet, from 11N to 18N between 68W and 81W, including
in the Mona Passage. Expect E winds from 20 to 25 knots, and sea
heights from 4 feet to 6 feet, in the Atlantic Ocean and in the
Windward Passage, from 20N to 21N between 71W and 75W.

The Bermuda High to the north of the area, combined with lower
pressure in N Colombia, will support fresh to strong NE to E winds
in the central Caribbean Sea through most of the week. Expect an
increase in areal coverage of strong wind speeds, from tonight
through Wed night, reaching as far to the north as the Hispaniola
adjacent waters. The winds near the coast of NE Colombia and the
Gulf of Venezuela will pulse to near gale-force at times, through
Thursday morning. Fresh to strong E winds will occur in the
afternoons and early evenings in the Windward Passage, through
midweek. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf
of Honduras on Wednesday night and on Thursday night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 29N67W cyclonic circulation
center, to the Bahamas,to Cuba, and to Jamaica. Broad upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 60W westward.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate is in the
area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow.

Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 75 nm
on either side of the line that extends from 31N77W in the
Atlantic Ocean, to central Florida, to 26N82W just off the SW
Florida coast. This precipitation is on the northern side of a 500
mb-to-700 mb ridge. A broad surface trough extends from central
Georgia to SE Louisiana.

A surface trough is along 40W, from 26N to 30N. extends from a
1024 mb high pressure center that is near 32N56W, to 27N49W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers cover the waters
from 26N northward between 38W and 45W.

A 1026 mb high pressure center is near 32N56W. A 1025 mb high
pressure center is near 32N36W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind
flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward, between Africa
and 80W, away from the 40W surface trough.

Strong-to-near gale force N-to-NE winds are from 130 nm to 220 nm
to the NE of the Canary Islands along the coast of Morocco. The
sea heights there are ranging from 6 feet to 8 feet. Fresh-to-
strong N-to-NE winds,and sea heights that are ranging from 4 feet
to 7 feet, are elsewhere in the Canary Islands area, and within
300 nm to the NE of the Canary Islands. N-to-NE fresh-to-strong
winds, and sea heights that are ranging from 4 feet to 7 feet,
are within 400 nm to the west of the coast of the Western Sahara.
Fresh-to-strong NE winds, and sea heights that are ranging from 6
feet to 8 feet, are from 09N to 14N between 54W and 60W.

Fresh to strong E winds will pulse in the afternoons and evenings
north of Hispaniola for the next several days. Moderate to fresh
trades will prevail elsewhere south of 22N. Surface ridging
associated with the Bermuda High will move slowly, southward to
27N by midweek, leading toward quiescent conditions across the
remainder of the western Atlantic Ocean.

$$
mt/era
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