[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181011
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jul 18 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends it axis along 36W from 21N
southward, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. This wave is moving
through an area of large-scale subsidence therefore, no deep
convective precipitation is associated with it.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 65W
from 20N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
showers are noted from 11N-16N between 67W-70W.

A Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 83W from 17N
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the wave's environment from 04N-17N between
80W-86W.

A tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico along 94W from 21N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 22N between 93W-
97W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends fro 12N17W to 07N35W. The ITCZ extends
from 06N38W to 06N53W. Scattered showers prevail within 60 nm on
either side of the monsoon trough mainly east of 34W, and along
the ITCZ between 40W-45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The northern extension of a tropical wave extends cross the SW
gulf waters. Refer to the section above for details.

Surface ridging prevails across the basin extending along 29N/30N.
Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds in the vicinity
of the wave across the Bay of Campeche, while gentle to moderate
east to southeast winds prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast...as the ridge sinks southward during the next
few days, tranquil conditions will prevail across the Gulf of
Mexico. No tropical cyclone activity is expected over Gulf through
midweek.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical
waves moving across the basin.

Over the southwest Caribbean, the monsoon trough extends along
10N between 76W-82W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along
the trough mainly south of 11N. Scatterometer data depicts fresh
to strong trades prevailing across the south central portion of
the basin south of 16N between 71W-82W, while gentle to moderate
trades prevail elsewhere.

The Bermuda High north of the area combined with lower pressure
over N Colombia will continue to support fresh to strong easterly
winds over the south-central Caribbean through most of the week.
Expect an increase in speed and areal coverage from Mon night
through Wed night while reaching as far west as the Hispaniola
adjacent waters. Fresh to strong E winds will occur in the
afternoons and early evenings for the next several days in the
Windward Passage. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in
the Gulf of Honduras by Thu. No tropical cyclone activity is
expected through midweek.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical
wave moving across the basin.

A surface ridge passes extends along 30N across the basin. Light
to gentle winds, and sea heights of 2 to 4 ft prevail from 24N
northward. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds, and sea heights
of 4 to 6 ft have been in the waters from 12N to 24N. Fresh to
strong winds and sea heights from 4 to 6 ft prevail from 20N to
21N between 71W and 74W. Gentle to moderate trade winds, and sea
heights ranging from 3 to 5 ft cover the remainder of the basin.

Fresh to strong E winds will occur in the afternoons and early
evenings to the north of Hispaniola for the next several days.
Ridging, associated with a weak Bermuda High, will move slowly
southward to 27N by midweek, leading toward quiescent conditions
across the remainder of the SW N Atlantic waters. No tropical
cyclone activity is expected through midweek.

$$
ERA
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