[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180529
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jul 18 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W, from 21N southward,
moving westward 5 to 10 knots. Precipitation: this wave is
moving through an area of large-scale subsidence. Little to no
deep convective precipitation is associated with this tropical
wave.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is within 300 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and
within 240 nm to the west of the tropical wave. Large-scale
subsidence is within 500 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and
within 500 nm to 700 nm to the west of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. The tropical wave is moving
through the western Caribbean Sea, through Panama and into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: Scattered to numerous strong
is within 45 nm to 60 nm to the east of the tropical wave, from
06N to 10N on either side of Panama. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is in the coastal sections of Nicaragua from the
east central coast southward, and in the southern sections of
Costa Rica. The monsoon trough passes through 10N74W in Colombia,
beyond 08N82W in Panama, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within a radius of
30 nm to 45 nm of 06N75W in Colombia, 06.5N78W at the eastern
Pacific Ocean coast of Colombia, and along the border of Colombia
and Panama. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere
within 60 nm on either side of the monsoon trough.

A tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, along 92W/93W, from 21N southward, moving westward 10
knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 120
nm to the west of the tropical wave from 14N in the eastern
Pacific Ocean, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico,
to 21N in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 26N
southward from 90W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, to 10N20W 07N30W 07N35W. The ITCZ is
along 07N37W, to 06N53W in the coastal waters of French Guiana.
Precipitation: scattered moderate strong is within 90 nm to the
north of the monsoon trough between Africa and 20W, and within 120
nm to the south of the monsoon trough between Africa and 17W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 380 nm to
the south of the monsoon trough, and within 180 nm to the north of
the monsoon trough. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within
90 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 40W and 45W, and from 08N
to 12N between 51W and 56W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, along 92W/93W, from 21N southward, moving westward 10
knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 120
nm to the west of the tropical wave from 14N in the eastern
Pacific Ocean, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico,
to 21N in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 26N
southward from 90W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A
surface ridge passes through central Florida, toward the coast of
Mexico near 22N98W. Mainly gentle ESE to SE winds, and sea heights
of 1 foot to 3 feet are in the Gulf.

The Bermuda High extends a ridge southwestward across the SE
CONUS. As the ridge sinks southward during the next few days,
tranquil conditions will prevail across the Gulf of Mexico. No
tropical cyclone activity is expected over Gulf through at least
midweek.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The two main phenomena are tropical waves. One tropical wave is
along 64W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 300 nm to
the east of the tropical wave, and within 240 nm to the west of
the tropical wave. Large- scale subsidence is within 500 nm to the
east of the tropical wave, and within 500 nm to 700 nm to the
west of the tropical wave.

The second tropical wave is along 81W/82W. Precipitation is in
parts of Central America, and its coastal waters.

The southwestern end of an upper level trough is reaching Cuba
along 80W, and to 20N81W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is in the Yucatan Channel, and elsewhere from
20N northward from 80W westward, and isolated moderate in the
Windward Passage.

The monsoon trough passes through 10N74W in Colombia, beyond
08N82W in Panama, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within a radius of
30 nm to 45 nm of 06N75W in Colombia, 06.5N78W at the eastern
Pacific Ocean coast of Colombia, and along the border of Colombia
and Panama. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere
within 60 nm on either side of the monsoon trough.

A tight surface pressure gradient, between the Atlantic Ocean
ridge and the comparatively lower surface pressures in Colombia,
have been allowing for fresh to strong trade winds, and sea
heights of 8 feet to 11 feet in the central and S central
Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate trade winds, and sea heights of
2 feet to 4 feet have been in the NW Caribbean Sea. Expect E
winds from 20 to 25 knots, and sea heights from 4 feet to 6 feet,
in the Atlantic Ocean and in the Windward Passage, from 20N to 21N
between 71W and 74W. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds, and
sea heights of 4 feet to 6 feet have been prevailing in the rest
of the basin.

The Bermuda High to the north of the area, and lower pressure in
N Colombia, will support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the
south central Caribbean Sea through most of the week. Expect an
increase in speed and areal coverage, from Monday night through
Wednesday night, while reaching as far to the west as the
Hispaniola adjacent waters. Elsewhere, NE trades will become fresh
to strong tonight and Sunday night in the Windward Passage. Fresh
to strong winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras by
midweek. No tropical cyclone activity is expected through at least
Thursday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 30N65W cyclonic circulation
center, to the southern Bahamas and Cuba along 80W. Broad upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward from 60W westward. Precipitation: isolated to widely
scattered moderate is from 29N northward between 60W and 72W.
Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N northward from 60W
westward.

A surface ridge passes through 31N69W to central Florida. Light
to gentle winds, and sea heights of 2 feet to 4 feet have been
from 24N northward. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds, and
sea heights of 4 feet to 6 feet have been in the waters from 12N
to 24N. Expect E winds from 20 to 25 knots, and sea heights from
4 feet to 6 feet, in the Atlantic Ocean and in the Windward
Passage, from 20N to 21N between 71W and 74W. Gentle to moderate
trade winds, and sea heights ranging from 3 feet to 5 feet have
been covering the rest of the Atlantic Ocean.

Fresh to strong E winds will occur in the afternoons and early
evenings to the north of Hispaniola for the next several days.
Ridging, associated with a weak Bermuda High, will move slowly
southward to 27N by Wednesday, leading toward quiescent conditions
across the remainder of the SW N Atlantic waters. No tropical
cyclone activity is expected through at least Thursday.

$$
mt/era
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