[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162252
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jul 17 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W from 22N southward and
moving W at 10 knots. Convection previously associated with this
wave has diminished, partially due to dry and dusty Saharan Air
Layer present in the vicinity.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 53W from 20N southward
and moving W near 15 to 20 knots. Dry and dusty Saharan Air Layer
has also suppressed convection associated with this wave.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W from just S of Haiti to
Colombia, moving W at 15 kt. Convection previously associated with
this wave has diminished this evening.

A second Caribbean tropical wave is along 87N from the Yucatan
Channel through Honduras and Nicaragua, then extending into the
eastern Pacific. This wave is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection in the far NW Caribbean, in the vicinity of
the Cayman Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends through the Senegal-Gambia border at
14N17W to 08N34W, then the ITCZ continues from 08N34W to 06N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is evident near the monsoon trough
from 05N to 10N between 17W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered moderate convection is near the coast of SE Louisiana,
Mississippi, and Alabama, due to an upper level low north of the
region. Otherwise, dry conditions dominate the basin.

A surface ridge across the N Gulf near 28N continues to provide
mainly gentle winds with seas of 1 to 3 ft across most of the
Gulf. Moderate winds are occurring in the Florida Straits and
adjacent waters off western Cuba.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging over SE CONUS will slowly
sink southward to reach the N Gulf of Mexico by Mon through Wed.
Quiescent winds and seas are expected to continue through at least
Wed night. No tropical cyclone activity is anticipated over the
Gulf of Mexico for the next several days.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Tropical Waves section above for details on convection in the
NW Carribbean primarily associated with a tropical wave.
Otherwise, generally dry conditions prevail through the basin.
Fresh to locally strong trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are seen
across the S central Caribbean Basin. Moderate to locally fresh
winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate elsewhere.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the area and lower
pressure over N South America is supporting fresh to strong NE to
E trades over the S central Caribbean for the next several days.
Additionally, NE trades will become fresh to strong Sat night and
Sun night in the Windward Passage. No tropical cyclone activity is
expected over the Caribbean or Tropical N Atlantic for the next
several days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from near Bermuda to NE of the Bahamas.
Scattered moderate convection associated with this trough is noted
N of 26N between 72W and 77W.  Refer to the Tropical Waves and
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections above for additional convection.

A surface ridge extends southwestward from the 1031 mb Azores
high across the 1023 mb Bermuda high to N Florida. This feature
is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft N of 23N
from 35W to Georgia-Florida coastline. Gentle to moderate trades
and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail from 11N to 23N between 26W and the
Lesser Antilles, and also near the Canarias Islands from N of 24N
between the African coast and 26W. Light to gentle E to ESE trades
and seas of 3 to 5 ft are seen for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh to strong E winds will occur
late afternoons and evenings north of Hispaniola for the next
several days. Elsewhere, a weak Bermuda High north of the area is
supporting generally quiescent conditions through at least Wed
night. No tropical cyclone activity is expected over the SW North
Atlantic for the next several days.

$$
KONARIK
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