[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jul 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Atlantic tropical wave is near 28W from 22N southward and
moving W at 5 to 10 knots. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms are seen from 05N to 09N between 25W and 29W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W from 20N southward and
moving W near 15 knots. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
are present near the Suriname-Brazil border from 02N to 04N
between 49W and 52W.

Both waves above are embedded in the dry and dusty Saharan Air
Layer which is limiting convection.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from south of Hispaniola at
16N southward to Venezuela and Colombia, and moving W at 15 to 20
knots. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near the
Venezuela and Colombia border from 02N to 08N between 66W and 71W,
and over the E Carribbean basin from 12N to 14N between 66W and
68W.

A second Caribbean tropical wave is along 85N from the W tip of
Cuba southward through Honduras and Nicaragua, and moving W near
15 knots. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found
over the Yucatan Channel, W Cuba and waters NW of Jamaica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends through the Senegal-Gambia border at
14N17W to 08N31W, then the ITCZ continues from 08N31W to 06N48W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident near the
monsoon trough from 05N to 10N between 24W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low near the Mississippi-Alabama border at 29N87W
is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near
New Orleans from 28N to 31N between 87W and 89W. Refer to the
Tropical Waves section above for additional convection near the
Yucatan Channel.

A surface ridge across the N Gulf near 28N continues to provide
light to gentle winds, and seas of 1 to 3 across most of the Gulf.
Gentle to locally moderate winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are
present along the W edge of the Gulf and near the Yucatan Passage.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging over SE CONUS will remain
in place for the next several days. Quiescent conditions are
expected to continue through at least Tue night. No tropical
cyclone activity is anticipated over the Gulf of Mexico for the
next several days.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Diffluent flow aloft is triggering scattered convection across the
waters between Jamaica and E Cuba from 18N to 19N between 76W and
79W. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for additional
convection over the E Carribbean. Fresh to locally strong trades
and seas of 7 to 9 ft are seen across the S central Caribbean
Basin. Moderate to locally fresh trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are
evident over the N central and E basin. Gentle trades and seas of
3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the area and lower
pressure over northern South America is supporting fresh to strong
NE to E trades over the S central Caribbean for the next several
days. Additionally, NE trades will become fresh to strong Sat
night and Sun night in the Windward Passage. No tropical cyclone
activity is expected over the Caribbean or Tropical N Atlantic for
the next several days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is reaching northeastward from NE of the Bahamas
at 27N74W to a low pressure system over the N central Atlantic
basin. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are flaring up
near this feature from 27N to 30N between 72W and 75W. Refer to
the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections above for
additional convection.

A surface ridge extends southwestward from the 1030 mb Azores
high across the 1023 mb Bermuda high to N Florida. This feature
is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft N of 23N
from 35W to Georgia-Florida coastline. Gentle to moderate trades
and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail from 11N to 23N between 26W and the
Lesser Antilles, and also near the Canarias Islands from N of 24N
between the African coast and 26W. Light to gentle E to ESE trades
and seas of 3 to 5 ft are seen for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh to strong E winds will occur
late afternoons and evenings north of Hispaniola for the next
several days. Elsewhere, a weak Bermuda High north of the area is
supporting generally quiescent conditions for the next several
days. No tropical cyclone activity is expected over the SW North
Atlantic through at least Tue night.

$$

Chan
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