[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101024
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jul 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 32W/33W, from 10N southward, moving
westward from 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 02N to 04N between 30W and 34W.

A tropical wave is along 49W/50W, from 23N southward, moving
westward from 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 10N to 12N between 43W and 47W.

A tropical wave is along 71W/72W, from 15N southward, moving
westward from 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
noted south of 13N between 70W and 72W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near
12N17W to 04N25W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 04N25W to
03N30W, and from 03N35W to 04N48W. In addition to the convection
described in the Tropical Wave section, scattered moderate
convection is active from 02N to 04N between 42W and 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge reaches from the western Atlantic across the far
northeast Gulf and into the western Florida Panhandle. Light
breezes and 1 to 2 ft seas are noted across the northeast Gulf
under the ridge axis. Fresh SE winds are noted over the northwest
Gulf, between the ridge and lower pressure over Mexico. A surface
trough is analyzed off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula,
supporting fresh NE to E winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche.
Elsewhere gentle to moderate E to SE breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas
are evident. Scattered thunderstorms are noted off the coast of
Veracruz. No other significant weather is observed at this time.

For the forecast, the ridge will lift north of the area early
next week, supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas will persist through mid week. The exception will be
fresh to occasionally strong winds off the northwest Yucatan
Peninsula and eastern Bay of Campeche during overnight hours
through mid week, related to the recurrence of surface trough
that forms during the late afternoon each day.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong to near-gale force trade winds and 8 to 12 ft seas are
noted across much of the central Caribbean, between high pressure
north of the area and lower pressure over Colombia and western
Venezuela. A scatterometer satellite pass showed another area of
fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Earlier altimeter
satellite data indicated seas were possibly reaching 8 ft over the
Gulf of Honduras, although this may be subsiding. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds are noted elsewhere, with 5 to 7 ft seas in
the eastern Caribbean and 4 to 6 ft seas in the northwest
Caribbean. A sharp upper trough reaches from over Haiti southward
toward Panama. Associated divergent flow aloft along with
convergent trade wind flow in the lower levels is supporting
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the far southwest
Caribbean from the coast of Colombia to southeast Nicaragua.

For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the area
combined with the Colombian low will support strong to
occasionally near gale force trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean through mid week. Strong trades in the Gulf of Honduras
will diminish Sun, but fresh trades will pulse nightly through the
middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 65W, light breezes are noted along the ridge axis, with
moderate SW winds north of the axis and moderate to fresh E winds
south of the axis, pulsing to fresh to strong along the north
coast of Hispaniola. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in open waters. Surface
ridge extends from near Bermuda to central Florida. An upper level
low is centered north of Turks and Caicos near 23N71W. Associated
divergent flow aloft is supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the northern Bahamas.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure extending from
Bermuda to central Florida will lift north of the area by early
next week. This will support moderate to fresh E winds south of
the ridge axis, with winds pulsing to fresh to strong along the
north coast of Hispaniola mainly during the evenings into mid
week.

Elsewhere farther east, 1034 mb high pressure is centered over the
central Atlantic near 34N43W. This is supporting moderate to fresh
trade winds west of 35W with 5 to 7 ft seas. Over the eastern
Atlantic east of 35W, fresh to strong NE winds are noted north of
15N, and gentle to moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas farther
south.

$$
Christensen
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