[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jul 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W, from 10N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: monsoon trough-related precipitation surrounds
this tropical wave, from 02N to 05N between 29W and 35W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W/49W, from 24N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in small clusters,
within 30 nm on either side of the line that passes through
10N42W 11N44W 12N46W 12N49W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W/71W, from 13N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 140 nm to the west of the tropical wave in Venezuela, and
within 170 nm to the east of the tropical wave near the border
of Colombia and Venezuela near 05N68W.

An inland Central America tropical wave is along 86W from 14N in
Nicaragua southward. The wave is moving westward from 10 knots
to 15 knots. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 74W in
Colombia, beyond Panama and Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 200 nm to the
south of the monsoon trough between 73W and 77W in Colombia;
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to
the north of the monsoon trough between 77W and 86W; and within
270 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 77W and 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of the
border area of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, to 09N20W, 05N24W, and
04N27W. The ITCZ continues from 04N27W, to 03N40W, and 04N48W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 100 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between
25W and 47W, from 03N to 10N between the coast of Africa and
18W, and from 08N to 09N between 24W and 27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is along the SE coast of the U.S.A.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within
90 nm on either side of the line that extends from 30N77W in the
Atlantic Ocean, across south Florida, to 25N83W in the SE Gulf
of Mexico.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico.
A surface ridge extends from the NE corner of Florida, toward
southern Mississippi and SE Louisiana, to south central Texas.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover much of the Gulf of Mexico.

Fresh-to-strong NE-to-E fresh winds cover the areas that are
from 20N to 22N between 90W and 91W.

High pressure extends from the western Atlantic to the
north-central Gulf. A trough will form during the evenings off
northwest Yucatan Peninsula, supporting fresh or locally strong
winds during overnight hours through mid week. Elsewhere, gentle
to moderate winds and slight seas will persist through mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An inland Central America tropical wave is along 86W from 14N in
Nicaragua southward. The wave is moving westward from 10 knots
to 15 knots. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 74W in
Colombia, beyond Panama and Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 200 nm to the
south of the monsoon trough between 73W and 77W in Colombia;
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to
the north of the monsoon trough between 77W and 86W; and within
270 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 77W and 80W.

A tropical wave is along 70W/71W, from 13N southward, moving
westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 140 nm to the
west of the tropical wave in Venezuela, and within 170 nm to the
east of the tropical wave near the border of Colombia and
Venezuela near 05N68W.

NE-to-E strong to near-gale force winds, and sea heights ranging
from 8 feet to 12 feet, are in the south central Caribbean Sea,
from 10N to 17N between 70W and 83W. E strong-to-near gale force
winds, and sea heights ranging from 4 feet to 6 feet, cover the
area that is from 16N to 17N between 85W and 88W, including in
the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh-to-strong NE to E winds, and sea
heights reaching 8 feet, cover the area that is from 20N to 21N
between 71W and 74W, including in the Windward Passage.

High pressure centered north of the area combined with the
Colombian low will support strong to occasionally near gale
force trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through mid
week. Strong trades in the Gulf of Honduras will diminish Sat,
but fresh trades will pulse nightly through the middle of next
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is along the SE coast of the U.S.A.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within
90 nm on either side of the line that extends from 30N77W in the
Atlantic Ocean, across south Florida, to 25N83W in the SE Gulf
of Mexico.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N70W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate rainshowers,
cover the area that is from the Greater Antilles northward
between 50W and the Bahamas.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N24W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow, and comparatively drier air in
subsidence that is apparent in water vapor imagery, cover the
area that is from 17N northward from 33W eastward.

A 1033 mb high pressure center is near 36N39W. A surface ridge
extends from the 1033 mb high pressure to 31N63W 29N70W, to
29N79W, about 120 nm to the north of the NW Bahamas.

Fresh-to-strong NE to E winds, and sea heights reaching 8 feet,
cover the area that is from 20N to 21N between 71W and 74W,
including in the Windward Passage.

Fresh-to-strong winds, and sea heights ranging from 7 feet to 11
feet, cover the area that is from 12N northward from 60W
eastward.

High pressure extending from Bermuda to central Florida will
lift north of the area by early next week. This will support
moderate to fresh E winds south of the ridge axis, with winds
pulsing to fresh to strong along the north coast of Hispaniola
mainly during the evenings.

$$
mt/ec
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