[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072321
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jul 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Elsa made landfall in Taylor County along the
North Florida Gulf Coast around 11 am EDT. Maximum sustained
winds were estimated at 65 mph at the time of landfall. Currently,
Elsa is inland moving across southern Georgia accompanied by very
heavy rain. At 07/2100 UTC, Elsa is centered near 30.8N 83.4W or
100 nm WSW of Brunswick Georgia moving N at 12 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. On the forecast track, Elsa will
move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on Thursday,
over North Carolina later on Thursday, and move near or over the
mid-Atlantic coast on Friday. Continued weakening is expected through
tomorrow as Elsa moves over land. Hazardous marine conditions
over the NE Gulf will gradually improve through this evening.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, Forecast/ Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, and the High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
For marine information within 60 nm of the coast, please see
products from your local NWS Weather Forecast Office at
www.weather.gov.

Gale warning E of 35W: A Gale Warning is in effect for Agadir
through 08/00 UTC. The forecast from Meteo-France indicates N
winds Force 8 of the Beaufort Wind Scale in far E. For more
details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed in
their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/
bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 20W/21W from 16N southward. Scattered
moderate convection is noted ahead of the wave axis from 06N-10N
between 21W-24W. A large cluster of moderate to isolated strong
convection is reaching the W coast of Africa, affecting parts of
Guinea, Guinea Bissau, and Senegal.

A second tropical wave has its axis along 32W from 02N to 18N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scatterometer data and the cloud
field suggest some cyclonic circulation along the wave axis near
08N. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N-10N between
30W-37W.

A third tropical wave is over the tropical Atlantic along 53W
south of 14N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Isolated to scattered
moderate convection is on either side of the wave axis from
08N-10N between 50W-56W.

A low-amplitude tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along
66W south of 13N, moving westward at about 15 kt. The wave appears
to enhance some convective activity over parts of Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from Senegal near 11N15W to
09N20W to 08N32W to 04N42W. The ITCZ continues from 04N32W to
05N51W. Most of the convective activity is associated with the
tropical waves.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The center of Tropical Storm Elsa made landfall in Taylor County
along the North Florida Gulf Coast this morning. Elsa is expected
to remain inland over Georgia and the Carolinas during the next
day or two. Please see Special Features section above for more
details.

Lines of clouds, with embedded showers and thunderstorms,
associated with the cyclonic circulation of T.S. Elsa are still
noted over the eastern Gulf while a 1010 mb low pressure over
southern Texas is producing a cluster of moderate to isolated
strong convection over the NW Gulf, particularly from 24N-28N W
of 95W. Satellite derived wind data provide observations of
gentle to moderate SE winds W of 87W. SW to W winds are along
the eastern Gulf and the W coast of Florida due to the large
circulation of Elsa.

For the forecast: The Atlantic high pressure will build westward
across the Gulf waters in the wake of Elsa with a 1019-1020 mb
high pressure cell developing over the NE Gulf on Thu. Seas of
8-9 ft over the NE Gulf will continue to gradually subside as
Elsa moves away from the Gulf region. Fresh to locally strong
winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours to the
NW of the Yucatan Peninsula due to local effects induced by a
thermal trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The most recent scatterometer data show fresh to strong trade
winds across the central Caribbean while an altimeter pass over
the same area indicates seas up to 11 ft over the south-central
Caribbean. Buoy 42058 located near 14N75W is also reporting seas
of 11 ft. Moderate to fresh east winds are over the eastern
Caribbean and the waters E of the Lesser Antilles with seas of
6-7 ft, except 4-5 ft just W of the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast: As the Atlantic ridge builds westward in the
wake of tropical cyclone Elsa, expect widespread strong trades
to continue in the south-central Caribbean into Fri night. These
winds may reach near gale force Thu through Fri night with seas
building to 12-14 ft by Thu night into Fri. Fresh to strong winds
will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras through the rest of
the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda-Azores high dominates the Atlantic forecast waters.
Of note, during the summer, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean
Sea are dominated by the Bermuda-Azores high, with is at its
westernmost position. Circulation around the high results in
southerly winds over the Gulf of Mexico and easterly winds over
the Caribbean Sea. The winds bring warm, moist air from the ocean
onto the land. Today, the 1800 UTC surface analysis shows a 1029
mb Azores high located near 36N37W with the associated ridge
reaching the Bahamas and SE Florida.

Bands of showers and thunderstorms associated with the circulation
of Elsa are affecting northern Florida and southern Georgia as
well as the Atlantic regional waters. Some showers and thunderstorm
activity is also noted over the NW Bahamas.

For the forecast W of 65W: Fresh southeast winds will continue off
the northern Florida coast through tonight due to Tropical Storm
Elsa, which is forecast to track northeastward across the southeastern
U.S. through Thu allowing for these winds to diminish. High pressure
will then build westward across the area through Sun night. East
winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds at night between the
southeastern Bahamas and the Dominican Republic through the period.

Fresh to strong northerly winds are noted near the coast of Morocco
and Western Sahara per scatterometer data, including also the Canary
Islands. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between
the Azores high and lower pressures over W Africa. Seas are 6-8
ft within these winds. These marine conditions will persist over
the next couple of days as the Atlantic high pressure strengthens.

$$
GR
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