[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jul 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Elsa is centered near 30.3N 83.5W at 07/1800 UTC
or about 90 nm West of Jacksonville, Florida. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed of 45 kt
gust to 55 kt. Peak wave heights are estimated to be around 13 ft
in within 30 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Latest satellite
imagery shows scattered moderate to strong convection is within
120 nm of the center in the N and NE quadrants moving inland
across the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia. Scattered
moderate convection is detached outer rain bands are noted from
25N-27N in the Gulf of Mexico. A turn toward the north- northeast
is expected this evening, followed by a faster northeastward
motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move
over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on Thursday, over
North Carolina later Thursday, and move near or over the mid-
Atlantic coast on Friday. Hazardous marine conditions over the NE
Gulf will gradually improve through this evening.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, Forecast/ Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, and High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
For marine information within 60 nm of the coast, please see
products from your local NWS Weather Forecast Office at
www.weather.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The next tropical wave has emerged of the coast of Africa with
its axis along 19W, from 16N southward. Increasing clusters of
scattered moderate convection are seen along its axis from 01N
to 12N between 17W-23W.

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31W from 01N to 17N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scatterometer shows a low pressure
about 60 nm west of the wave axis near over 08N32W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is from 02N to 10N between
26W to 35W. This convection is on an increasing trend.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 50W south
of 12N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are near the wave axis and to the west of the wave
to near 52W.

A low-amplitude eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis
along 65W south of 13N, moving westward at about 15 kt.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted south of 13N to the
coast of Venezuela in the vicinity of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
12N17W to a 1012 mb low pressure near 08N31W to 07N41W. A very
small segment of the ITCZ extends from 07N41W to 08N46W, then
resumes west of the tropical wave from 07N52W to the coast of
Brazil near 06N56W. Aside from the convection described above
in the tropical waves section, scattered showers and thunderstorms
are noted extending 300 nm south of the monsoon trough between
the two tropical waves, and scattered moderate convection along
the ITCZ between 52W-57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The center of Tropical Storm Elsa made landfall in Taylor County
along the north Florida Gulf coast this morning. Please see
Special Features section above for details.

As of 07/0900 UTC, a surface trough is analyzed just inland the
Texas coast, with a 1009 mb low near 27N97W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is occurring from 23N to 28N west
of 93W. ASCAT data indicated gentle to moderate south-southeast
winds west of the 85W. An upper-level trough shifting south-
southeast with time over northeastern Mexico is supporting an area
of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 22N to
24N west of 95W to within 80 nm inland the coast of Mexico. Gentle
to moderate east-southeast winds continue over the central and
western Gulf, with wave heights in the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast: Elsa will weaken to a tropical depression near
34.3N 80.9W Thu morning and remain inland at 37.3N 77.6W Thu
evening, then strengthen to a tropical storm near 40.6N 73.3W Fri
morning. Tropical Storm Elsa will reach 44.5N 68.0W Fri evening
and become extratropical near Newfoundland Sat morning. Hazardous
marine conditions over the NE Gulf will gradually improve through
this evening. In the wake of Elsa, Atlantic high pressure will
build westward across the area through the next few days. Swells
from Elsa are likely to spread throughout the basin through Sat.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across the
north-central Gulf through at least tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

ASCAT pass this morning depicted fresh to strong E to NE winds in
the south-central Caribbean within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia
between 75W and 76W. Strong east winds extend across the central
Caribbean between 66W and 78W. Mainly fresh east winds are over
the remainder of the central Caribbean, with seas of 7-10 ft.
Elsewhere in the basin, gentle to moderate trades prevail with
wave heights in the range of about 3-6 ft. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 10N south along the coast of Panama and
Costa Rica.

For the forecast: Widespread fresh to strong trades will continue
in the south-central Caribbean through late Fri. These winds may
reach near gale force Thu through Fri night. Fresh to strong winds
will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras through the rest of
the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1027 mb high center is located north of the area near 32N50W,
with a ridge stretching southwest and then westward along 30N
to near 78W. High pressure covers the Atlantic north of 15N east
of 61W and north of 19N between 61W-77W. West of this ridge,
broad cyclonic flow is indicated in the latest surface analysis
to cover the far western waters, including the Florida peninsula,
and is attributed to Tropical Storm Elsa over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico near the Florida west-central coast. Scattered showers and
embedded thunderstorms associated with outer rain bands of
Tropical Storm Elsa are over most of the central and northern
Florida peninsula and the immediate coastal waters of northern and
central Florida. These rain bands are lifting to the north. Very
strong and gusty winds are possible with showers and thunderstorms
in these bands.

Strong to near gale force winds are near the Canary Islands. The
gradient induced by the high pressure and the lower pressure of
the tropics is allowing for a broad area of fresh northeasterly
winds to exist north of 24N E of 25W and for generally gentle to
moderate trades elsewhere south of 23N. Wave heights are in the
range of 4-6 ft per latest altimeter data passes, except for
higher heights of 6-8 ft from 21N E of 18W.

For the forecast: Fresh southeast winds will continue off the
northern and central Florida coasts through tonight as Tropical
Storm Elsa, currently in the eastern Gulf of Mexico near the
Florida west coast, moves inland across northern Florida. Elsa is
forecast to track northeastward across the southeastern U.S.
through Thu allowing for these winds to diminish. High pressure
will then build westward across the area through the Sun night.
East winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds at night between
the southeastern Bahamas and the Dominican Republic through the
period.

$$
Torres
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