[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

Wed Jul 7 16:40:52 CDT 2021

WTUS81 KAKQ 072140
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MDZ021>025-NCZ013>017-030>032-102-VAZ075-077-078-084>086-095>100-523>525-080545-

Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 31
National Weather Service Wakefield VA  AL052021
540 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

This product covers CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE

**ELSA IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEAST MARYLAND LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Newport News

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Accomack, Bertie,
      Camden, Chesapeake, Chowan, Dorchester, Eastern Currituck,
      Gates, Gloucester, Hampton/Poquoson, Hertford, Inland
      Worcester, Lancaster, Maryland Beaches, Mathews, Middlesex,
      Newport News, Norfolk/Portsmouth, Northampton, Northumberland,
      Pasquotank, Perquimans, Somerset, Suffolk, Virginia Beach,
      Western Currituck, Westmoreland, Wicomico, and York

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 700 miles southwest of Ocean City MD or about 590 miles
      southwest of Norfolk VA
    - 30.8N 83.4W
    - Storm Intensity 45 mph
    - Movement North or 10 degrees at 14 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Elsa is moving into southern Georgia early this evening and
will then track northeast into the Carolinas by tonight into Thursday
morning. Elsa is then forecast to move across northern North Carolina
and eastern Virginia Thursday evening into Thursday night, before
moving northeast of the Delmarva coast Friday morning.

Heavy rain bands and embedded thunderstorms are expected to overspread
the region Thursday and continue into Thursday night. 1 to 3 inches of
rainfall is forecast across much of central and eastern Virginia, in
addition to the Lower Eastern Shore. Locally higher amounts up to 5
inches are possible in these locations. Heavy rainfall will result in
a threat of localized flash flooding. A Flash Flood Watch is now in
effect for the above mentioned areas.

Tropical storm force wind gusts are expected to develop along/near
coastal portions of northeast North Carolina, eastern Virginia, and
southeast Maryland Thursday evening into Thursday night. This could
lead to some downed trees and scattered power outages.

Additionally, a few tornadoes will be possible Thursday into Thursday
night across northeast North Carolina, southeast/eastern Virginia, and
southeast Maryland, which could lead to locally enhanced damage.

Dangerous marine conditions are expected to develop Thursday evening
into Friday morning with strong winds and seas building to 6 to
9 feet.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE LOWER EASTERN
SHORE. Potential impacts include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, especially if soils are saturated. Some roadway signs
      will sustain damage.
    - A few roads may be impassable from debris. Hazardous driving
      conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* SURGE:
Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
adjacent to the sounds of Northeast North Carolina, in addition to the
Back Bay area of Virginia Beach. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Widespread storm surge flooding of vulnerable areas will result
      in an elevated threat of property damage to homes and
      businesses near the waterfront and shoreline.
    - Sections of low-lying vulnerable roads, parking lots and
      property will likely become flooded. Driving conditions could
      become dangerous in places where flooding covers the road.
    - Moderate to severe beach erosion is likely, including heavy
      surf possibly breaching dunes, especially in vulnerable
      locations. Strong and dangerous rip currents are likely.
    - Minor to moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and
      piers is likely. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

Elsewhere across CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE, little to no impact
is anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. Potential impacts
include:
    - Flooding from heavy rainfall may prompt evacuations and rescues
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen, with swift
      currents, and overspill their banks. Small streams, creeks, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures and/or weaken
      foundations. Some areas may experience areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures are expected.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE
LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. Potential impacts include:
    - A few tornadoes will be possible. As a result, execution of
      emergency plans could be hindered in affected areas.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Roofs peeled off some buildings. A few chimneys toppled and
      mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned. Large tree
      tops and branches snapped off, with some trees knocked over. A
      few vehicles blown off roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for
weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away
from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital
contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged.

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county or parish in which
you are located and where it is relative to current watches and
warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their
onsite disaster plan.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see
www.readyvirginia.gov, readync.org or mema.maryland.gov
- For the latest weather and storm information go to
weather.gov/wakefield

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Wakefield VA around 12 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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