[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS81 KPHI 072134
HLSPHI
DEZ003-004-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ013-014-020-022>027-080800-

Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 31
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ  AL052021
534 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

This product covers New Jersey, Delaware, southeastern Pennsylvania,
and the Eastern Short of Maryland

**Elsa is Expected to Impact Portions of southern Delaware and
eastern New Jersey late Thursday into Friday morning**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Atlantic, Atlantic
      Coastal Cape May, Cape May, Caroline, Coastal Atlantic, Coastal
      Ocean, Delaware Beaches, Eastern Monmouth, Inland Sussex,
      Ocean, Queen Annes, Southeastern Burlington, Talbot, and
      Western Monmouth

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 780 miles southwest of Atlantic City NJ or about 730
      miles southwest of Dover DE
    - 30.8N 83.4W
    - Storm Intensity 45 mph
    - Movement North or 10 degrees at 14 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Elsa made landfall along the west coast of Florida
early this morning and is continuing to track northeast through Georgia
into the Carolinas later tonight into Thursday morning. Elsa is then
forecast to move across southern Delaware and eastern New Jersey late
Thursday night into Friday morning. Elsa is then forecast to continue
to accelerate and move northeast, away from New Jersey, late Friday
morning.

The main threats with this system are heavy rainfall resulting in
flash flooding as well as some river flooding, as well as tropical
storm force winds, especially near the coast. In addition, dangerous
marine conditions will occur, along with the potential for dangerous
rip currents.

Two to four inches of rainfall are forecast Thursday afternoon into
Friday morning. Heavy rainfall will result in a threat of localized
flash flooding. Dangerous marine conditions are also expected to
develop along the Delaware Bay waters south of Slaughter Beach and
along the Atlantic Coastal Waters for all of Delaware and up towards
Sandy Hook, NJ. Tropical Storm force winds will be most likely across
the waters with seas building to 6 to 9 feet over the waters.
Dangerous rip currents will likely occur along the ocean beaches of
Delaware and New Jersey.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEAST MARYLAND. Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals,
      arroyos, and ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across NEW
JERSEY...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND.
Potential impacts include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* TORNADOES:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across New Jersey,
Delaware, southeastern Pennsylvania, and the Eastern Shore of Maryland.

* SURGE:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across New Jersey,
Delaware, southeastern Pennsylvania, and the Eastern Shore of Maryland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
WATCH/WARNING PHASE - Listen to local official for recommended
preparedness actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to
evacuate, do so immediately.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for
weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away
from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital
contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged.

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county or parish in which
you are located and where it is relative to current watches and
warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their
onsite disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially
pertaining to area visitors.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mount Holly NJ around 11 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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