[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jul 7 2021

Updated to include the 0000 UTC Intermediate Advisory for
Hurricane Elsa

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Elsa is centered near 26.6N 83.1W at 07/0000 UTC or 130
nm SSW of Tampa Florida moving N at 9 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt
with higher gusts. Latest satellite imagery depicts numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted from 24N-29N between 77W-
84W. Scattered moderate convection is present elsewhere from 19N-
30N between 76W-85W. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near or
over portions of the west coast of Florida later today through
tonight. Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the north Florida
Gulf coast Wednesday morning and then move across the
southeastern United States through Thursday.

Storm surge of 2 to 4 ft are probable along the Panhandle and
central W Florida coastline, 3 to 5 ft along the Big Bend area
and 1 to 3 ft along the SW coast and Keys. Rainfall of 4 to 6
inches with locally higher amounts are anticipated along the W
Florida coast, and 1 to 3 inches for the rest of Florida. Urban
and river flooding, and even flash flooding is a major concern.
Stay informed with your local weather forecast office and listen
to possible instructions from you local emergency management
office.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, and
the latest Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 28W from 17N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is from 02N to 07N between 25W-30W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 44W from 12N southward
and moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers is noticed from
06N-10N between 41W-48W.

A tropical wave extends across Venezuela along 65W and south of
10N, moving W at around 15 kt. Aided by upper-level divergent
flow aloft, scattered moderate convection is south of 13N between
58W-67W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the Gambia coastline at 13N17W
to 04N42W. ITCZ is from 03N45W to 04N51W. Aside from the
convection described in the tropical waves section above,
scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-14N and east of
22W, from 02N-09N between 30W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Hurricane Elsa is impacting the E Gulf and western Florida. See
the Special Features section above for details.

A surface ridge lies across the N Gulf while an elongated upper-
level low is near the Texas-Louisiana. Interaction between
convergent surface SE winds related to the ridge and divergent
winds associated with the low is triggering scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the NW Gulf north of 23N and west of 92W. Moderate
to fresh winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are near these showers and
thunderstorms. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 1 to
3 ft prevail elsewhere of the Gulf outside of Elsa.

As for the forecast: Hurricane Elsa will be near 27.5N 83.1W Wed
morning, then move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near
30.0N 82.8W Wed afternoon. Elsa will be at 32.3N 81.5W Thu
morning, then remain inland and weaken to a tropical depression
near 34.8N 78.9W Thu afternoon. Elsa will then move offshore and
strengthen to a tropical storm near 37.4N 75.4W Fri morning, and
reach 40.5N 71.0W Fri afternoon. Elsa will become extratropical as
it moves near Newfoundland Sat afternoon. Marine conditions will
be hazardous over much of the NE Gulf through Wed. Atlantic high
pressure will then build across the area in the wake of Elsa
through the next few days. Swells from Elsa are likely to spread
throughout the basin during the period. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected to continue across the north- central Gulf through
Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent S to SE winds feeding toward Hurricane Elsa near the
Florida Keys are producing scattered showers and thunderstorms
over the NW Caribbean affecting Cuba and adjacent waters. Moderate
to fresh trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail over south-central
Caribbean, mainly moderate trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted
elsewhere.

As for the forecast: Conditions will continue to improve near
Cuba tonight as Elsa moves farther away from the area.
Widespread fresh to strong trade winds will begin to increase in
the south-central Caribbean beginning late Wed and continue
through the rest of the week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at
night in the Gulf of Honduras through the rest of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level low near 23N64W is triggering scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms S of Bermuda from 21N to 27N between 60W
and 66W. A surface trough over central Florida, ahead of Tropical
Storm Elsa is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms over
the Florida peninsula and western Atlantic mainly west of 76W.
Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends WSW from a 1029 mb high
pressure center north of the area near 35N43W to N Florida.

Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are found N of 26N
between 23W and the SE US coast. Moderate to locally fresh winds
and seas of 6 to 8 ft are seen from 10N to 26N between the
African coast and Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and seas
of 3 to 5 ft are present elsewhere.

As for the forecast W of 65W: Hurricane Elsa will move through
the northeast Gulf of Mexico through Wed, then move across
northern Florida Wed night, then along the Georgia coast Thu and
finally north of the area by Thu night. Fresh southeast winds will
develop off the northern and central Florida coasts Wed and Wed
night as Elsa moves across portions of the SE U.S.. High pressure
will then build westward across the area through Sat night. By
Thu, winds will become gentle to moderate once again with tranquil
conditions expected for the remainder of the period.

$$
ERA/Mahoney
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