[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062318
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jul 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Elsa is centered near 25.8N 83.0W at 06/2100 UTC
or 130 nm SSW of Tampa Florida moving N at 9 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Latest satellite imagery depicts
numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 24N-29N
between 77W-84W. Scattered moderate convection is present
elsewhere from 19N-30N between 76W-85W. On the forecast track,
Elsa will move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida
later today through tonight. Elsa is forecast to make landfall
along the north Florida Gulf coast Wednesday morning and then
move across the southeastern United States through Thursday.

Storm surge of 2 to 4 ft are probable along the Panhandle and
central W Florida coastline, 3 to 5 ft along the Big Bend area
and 1 to 3 ft along the SW coast and Keys. Rainfall of 4 to 6
inches with locally higher amounts are anticipated along the W
Florida coast, and 1 to 3 inches for the rest of Florida. Urban
and river flooding, and even flash flooding is a major concern.
Stay informed with your local weather forecast office and listen
to possible instructions from you local emergency management
office.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, and
the latest Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 28W from 17N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is from 02N to 07N between 25W-30W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 44W from 12N southward
and moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers is noticed from
06N-10N between 41W-48W.

A tropical wave extends across Venezuela along 65W and south of
10N, moving W at around 15 kt. Aided by upper-level divergent
flow aloft, scattered moderate convection is south of 13N between
58W-67W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the Gambia coastline at 13N17W
to 04N42W. ITCZ is from 03N45W to 04N51W. Aside from the
convection described in the tropical waves section above,
scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-14N and east of
22W, from 02N-09N between 30W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Elsa is impacting the E Gulf and western Florida.
See the Special Features section above for details.

A surface ridge lies across the N Gulf while an elongated upper-
level low is near the Texas-Louisiana. Interaction between
convergent surface SE winds related to the ridge and divergent
winds associated with the low is triggering scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the NW Gulf north of 23N and west of 92W. Moderate
to fresh winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are near these showers and
thunderstorms. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 1 to
3 ft prevail elsewhere of the Gulf outside of Elsa.

As for the forecast: Tropical Storm Elsa will strengthen to a
hurricane near 27.5N 83.1W Wed morning, then move inland and
weaken to a tropical storm near 30.0N 82.8W Wed afternoon. Elsa
will be at 32.3N 81.5W Thu morning, then remain inland and weaken
to a tropical depression near 34.8N 78.9W Thu afternoon. Elsa
will then move offshore and strengthen to a tropical storm near
37.4N 75.4W Fri morning, and reach 40.5N 71.0W Fri afternoon.
Elsa will become extratropical as it moves near Newfoundland Sat
afternoon. Marine conditions will be hazardous over much of the
NE Gulf through Wed. Atlantic high pressure will then build
across the area in the wake of Elsa through the next few days.
Swells from Elsa are likely to spread throughout the basin during
the period. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
across the north-central Gulf through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent S to SE winds feeding toward Tropical Storm Elsa near
the Florida Keys are producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean affecting Cuba and adjacent
waters. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail
over south-central Caribbean, mainly moderate trades and seas of
3 to 5 ft are noted elsewhere.

As for the forecast: Conditions will continue to improve near
Cuba tonight as Elsa moves farther away from the area.
Widespread fresh to strong trade winds will begin to increase in
the south-central Caribbean beginning late Wed and continue
through the rest of the week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at
night in the Gulf of Honduras through the rest of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level low near 23N64W is triggering scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms S of Bermuda from 21N to 27N between 60W
and 66W. A surface trough over central Florida, ahead of Tropical
Storm Elsa is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms over
the Florida peninsula and western Atlantic mainly west of 76W.
Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends WSW from a 1029 mb high
pressure center north of the area near 35N43W to N Florida.

Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are found N of 26N
between 23W and the SE US coast. Moderate to locally fresh winds
and seas of 6 to 8 ft are seen from 10N to 26N between the
African coast and Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and seas
of 3 to 5 ft are present elsewhere.

As for the forecast W of 65W: Tropical Storm Elsa will move through
the northeast Gulf of Mexico through Wed, then move across
northern Florida Wed night, then along the Georgia coast Thu and
finally north of the area by Thu night. Fresh southeast winds
will develop off the northern and central Florida coasts Wed and
Wed night as Elsa moves across portions of the SE U.S.. High
pressure will then build westward across the area through Sat
night. By Thu, winds will become gentle to moderate once again
with tranquil conditions expected for the remainder of the
period.

$$
ERA
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