[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KJAX 052128
HLSJAX
FLZ020-021-023-024-030-031-033-035-038-122-124-125-132-133-136>138-140-222-225-232-236-237-240-325-340-425-GAZ162-163-350-364-060530-

Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 22
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL  AL052021
528 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

**TROPICAL STORM WATCHES EXPANDED ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY
AND INTO INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Western and Eastern
      Alachua, Echols, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Northern Columbia, Southern
      Columbia, and Suwannee

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Central Marion, Eastern
      Alachua, Eastern Marion, Echols, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Northern
      Columbia, Southern Columbia, Suwannee, Western Alachua, and
      Western Marion

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 530 miles south of Jacksonville FL
    - 22.7N 81.9W
    - Storm Intensity 50 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 315 degrees at 14 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to track northward near the Florida
west coast of the peninsula early Tuesday and move into the northern
portions of the peninsula late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Some of
Elsa impacts will begin to affect the region as early as Tuesday
afternoon and evening with rainbands moving up from the south. Gusty
winds of 30 to 40 mph will be possible ahead of Elsa in the showers
and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Earliest arrival time of potential
tropical storm force winds in Marion, Alachua, Gilchrist, Suwannee,
Columbia, Hamilton, and Echols counties will be late Tuesday
evening, but the most likely arrival time is early Wednesday morning.
Heavy rainfall and saturated grounds will enhance flood risk result
over inland areas of northeast FL and southeast Georgia. Rainfall
amounts near 2 to 4 inches with higher amounts to 6 inches are
possible. An isolated tornado will be possible over portions of
northeast Florida late Tuesday and Tuesday night.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. Potential
impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
      become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may
      become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited to
significant impacts across the rest of northeast Florida and southeast
Georgia.

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across
inland northeast Florida and southeast Georgia near the Interstate 75 corridor.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across the rest of northeast Florida and rest of inland southeast Georgia.


* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across inland northeast Florida south of Interstate 10 and west
of Interstate 95. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
      Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville FL around 11 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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