[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051822
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jul 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm ELSA, at 11/1500 UTC, is near 21.5N
81.2W or about 35 nm ESE of Cayo Largo, Cuba. ELSA is moving
toward the NW, or 310 degrees at 12 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is
55 knots with gusts to 65 kt. Tropical Storm Elsa is expected to
make landfall at western Cuba later this afternoon, then exit into
the Gulf of Mexico toward the Keys on Tuesday morning. A gradual
turn toward the north is anticipated on Tuesday, bringing Elsa
just off the western Florida coast before approaching the Big Band
area on Wednesday. Numerous strong convection is flaring up near
the center near southwestern Cuba within 90 miles of 21N81W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection associated with a
feeder band is seen farther SE and NE, near Jamaica and central
Cuba within 60 miles on either side of a line from 17N81W to
21N78W to 25N80W. Just over 3.5 inches of rainfall have fallen
upon Kingston, Jamaica yesterday. Rainfall of 4 to 6 inches are
possible along the SW coast of Florida. while mainly 2 to 4
inches are probable across the Panhandle, N Florida and the Keys.
Heavy rain might cause urban and river flooding, and even flash
flooding in these areas. Stay up to date with the latest
information from your local weather forecast office. On the
latest information on Tropical Storm Elsa, Please read the latest
advisories/bulletins at www.nhc.noaa.gov/#ELSA

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A newly analyzed Atlantic tropical wave is between the African
coast and Cape Verde Islands near 19W from 17N southward, and
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
seen from 01N to 06N between the African coast and 26W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W from 15N southward and
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 31W and 44W.

A third Atlantic tropical wave is near 57W from 10N southward into
Guyana and Suriname, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is found between 07N and 10N from 50W to coast
of Guyana.

A tropical wave previously located over Honduras and Nicaragua
has moved into Guatemala and the E Pacific Ocean. Refer to the
Tropical Weather Discussion on the E Pacific for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis the African coast near the Senegal-
Mauritania at 16N16W to near 07N26W. The ITCZ continues from
07N26W to 07N33W, then W of a tropical wave from 04N36W to near
the French Guiana-Brazil border at 03N50W. Aside from convection
described in the Tropical Wave section above, there is no other
significant convection.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for convection over the
Florida Strait associated with Tropical Storm Elsa.

An upper-level trough is over the N Gulf near 30N92W, while a
surface ridge is over the central Gulf near 25N89W. Convergent
winds near the ridge axis are coupling with the trough to produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the N and central W
Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are
present across most of the basin, except locally fresh winds and
seas up to 5 ft near thunderstorms.

As for the forecast: Tropical Storm Elsa near 21.5N 81.2W 1006 mb
at 11 AM EDT moving NW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt
gusts 65 kt. Elsa will move to 23.2N 82.2W this evening, 25.0N
83.2W Tue morning, 27.0N 83.6W Tue evening, 29.3N 83.4W Wed
morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near
31.5N 82.2W Wed evening. Expect for marine conditions to begin to
deteriorate over most of the far eastern Gulf waters beginning
today continuing through mid-week. Elsewhere in the Gulf, gentle
to moderate southerly winds will prevail through early in the
week. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across
the north- central Gulf through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Elsa is about to make landfall over central Cuba.
Please see the Special Features section above for details.

Convergent SE winds feeding toward Elsa are triggering scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms across the SW Caribbean. Fresh to
near-gale winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are present just E of Elsa,
over the waters between western Cuba and Jamaica. Moderate to
locally fresh winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail across the
central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft
are found elsewhere.

As for the forecast: Tropical Storm Elsa near 21.5N 81.2W 1006 mb
at 11 AM EDT moving NW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt
gusts 65 kt. Elsa will move across central and western Cuba today
and emerge over the Straits of Florida tonight into early Tue.
Winds are expected to diminish by tonight near Cuba as Elsa will
continue to move farther away from the area. Otherwise, fresh to
strong trade winds will increase in the south- central Caribbean
by Tue and continue through the rest of the week. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night
through the rest of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from southern Georgia to the mid-
Atlantic, while an upper-level trough is over the mid-Atlantic
US coast. Convergent SE to S winds S of the front are enhanced by
divergent winds related to the upper trough, resulting in scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection from the northern Bahamas
to well E of the Florida coast near 70W. Moderate to locally
fresh winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are evident in this area.

A large dome of 1030 mb high pressure over the Mid Atlantic
continues to provide light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft
N of 25N between 30W and 70W. Moderate to locally fresh trades
and seas of 5 to 8 ft are present from 13N to 25N between the
African coast and Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate winds and
seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere.

As for the forecast W of 65W: Atlantic high pressure will shift
slightly eastward through Mon in response to a stationary front
lingering N of the forecast waters. Fresh to strong southerly
winds ahead of the front and N of 28N will quickly diminish by
this afternoon. The center of Elsa will emerge off the northeast
Florida coast by Wed, bringing gusty winds and thunderstorms right
off the Florida coast.

$$

Chan
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