[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051113
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jul 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm ELSA, at 05/9600 UTC, is near 21.0N
79.9W or about 190 nm southeast of Havana, Cuba.  ELSA is moving
toward the NW, or 305 degrees at 12 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is
55 knots with gusts to 65 kt. Tropical Storm Elsa is just south
of central Cuba. Latest satellite imagery shows increasing wide
banding features that consist of scattered moderate to strong
type convection. These bands are noted within 180 nm of center
in the E semicircle and within 150 nm of the center in the W
semicircle. These bands appear to surround CDO feature that
consists of rapidly developing scattered moderate to strong
convection from 20N to 21N between 79W-81W. Elsa is forecast
to  move across central and western Cuba later today and pass
near the Florida Keys early Tue. Elsa is then forecast to move
near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tue and
on Wed. The hazards affecting land will be: wind, storm surge,
rainfall, flooding, and surf. The rainfall is forecast to
impact portions of the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula and the
coastal Southeast this week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with
localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches are expected across
Florida and coastal Georgia Mon through Wed, which may result in
isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Coastal portions
of South Carolina and North Carolina are expected to receive 1 to
3 inches of rain, with local maximum amounts up to 5 inches
Wed into Thu, which could lead to isolated flash and urban
flooding.

Please, read the latest advisories/bulletins at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/#ELSA, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W, from
15N southward. It is moving westward at 10-kt. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted within 360 nm west of the
wave from 05N to 08N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 51W from 11N
to 13N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is west of the wave to 55W from 05N to 11N.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 86W
south of 19N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. No deep
convection is noted.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea near 14N17W, to 10N22W, and 05N31W. The ITCZ continues from
05N31W, to 04N48W. Aside from convection described above under
Tropical Waves, scattered moderate convection is seen from
05N to 08N between 36W-45W. Scattered moderate convection is
well south of the monsoon trough within 60 nm of a line from
05N08N to 05N16W and to 05N24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from near 32N74W to inland
southeastern Georgia and continues westward to southern Louisiana
and well into central Texas. Generally weak high pressure
is present across the area. In the upper levels, broad- upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are in the northern
half of the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is
present over the central and western Gulf areas from 25N to 28N
between 87W-94W. This activity is being sustained by a rather
sharp upper-level trough that extends from Mississippi
southwestward to 25N92W and to near 20N96W.

As for the forecast: Tropical Storm Elsa is just south
of central Cuba at 5 AM EDT moving NW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained
winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Elsa will weaken slightly as it tracks
across western and central Cuba today and over the Straits of
Florida tonight with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt.
Elsa will maintain intensity as it reach the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico near 23.9N 82.5W late tonight, then increase slightly in
strength as it nears 25.9N 83.2 Tue afternoon with maximum
sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, reach to near 28.0N 83.4W late
Tue night, then move inland to near 30.1N 83.0W Wed afternoon.
Expect for marine conditions to begin to deteriorate over most of
the far eastern Gulf waters beginning today continuing through
mid-week. Elsewhere in the Gulf, gentle to moderate southerly
winds will prevail through early in the week. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to continue across the north- central
Gulf through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Elsa is just south of central Cuba as of 5 AM EDT.
Please see the Special Features section above for details.

A tropical wave is over the far western Caribbean along 86W. See
the Tropical Waves section above for details. Scattered moderate
convection is just south of western Cuba within 60 nm of 21N84W.

As for the forecast: Tropical Storm Elsa near 21.0N 79.9W 1004 mb
at 5 AM EDT is moving NW at 12 kt. Elsa will move across central
and western Cuba today and emerge over the Straits of Florida
tonight into Tue, and continue to pull away from the area Tue as
it tracks over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, fresh
to strong trade winds will increase in the south-central Caribbean
by Tue and continue through the rest of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper-level diffluent wind flow is to the south of a stationary
front that extends from near 32N74W to inland southeastern
Georgia. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 26N to 32N
between 69W-77W. An area of similar type convection is over and
near the vicinity of the central and NW Bahamas from 22N-27N
between 75W-80W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward from Florida eastward. A high pressure ridge
extends from a 1030 mb high located near 34N43W west-southwestward
to 30N61W and to across central Florida.

Strong-to-near gale force winds, and wave heights reaching to
7 ft are near the Canary Islands. Fresh-to-strong winds, and wave
heights in the range of 6-8 ft are within 600 nm to the west of
Africa from 15N to 25N.

As for the forecast: Atlantic high pressure will shift slightly
eastward through Mon in response to a cold front moving N of the
forecast waters. Fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the
front and N of 28N will diminish by this afternoon. Tropical Storm
Elsa is forecast to move into the Straits of Florida tonight into
Tue. Elsa is forecast to quickly move northeastward along the
southeastern U.S coast Wed through Thu potentially bringing
tropical force winds to the far northwest forecast waters.

$$
MT/Aguirre
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