[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 050533
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021

...ELSA JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA
LATER THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 79.6W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO CUBA
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos and Matanzas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban province of Camaguey

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Mayabeque, and Havana
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
* The Cuban province of Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef
* Florida Bay
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Anclote
River

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours. The hurricane conditions are expected to begin shortly after
the first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that
make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula, coastal Georgia and
the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 79.6 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Elsa is expected
to move across central and western Cuba later today and head toward
the Florida Straits tonight, and pass near the Florida Keys early
Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the
west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is possible before Elsa moves over Cuba
later today, followed by some weakening while the center moves over
land. Slight restrengthening is possible after Elsa moves over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in
portions of central Cuba today.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in the warning area in the Florida Keys by
tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas
in the Cayman Islands this morning, and in the upper Florida Keys by
tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
along the west coast of Florida beginning early Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 ft

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Jamaica, an additional 2 to 4 inches of
rainfall with isolated storm total amounts of 15 inches are expected
through this morning. This rain may lead to scattered flash
flooding and mudslides, some of which could be significant.

Across portions of Cuba today, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result
in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Across the Cayman Islands today, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is
expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, Florida
Peninsula and the coastal Southeast this week. Amounts of 2 to 4
inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be
possible across Florida and Coastal Georgia today through
Wednesday, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor
river flooding.  Coastal portions of South Carolina are expected to
receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, with local amounts to 5 inches
Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to isolated flash
flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across southern
Florida this afternoon into Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the
southern coast of Cuba today.  Swells will increase near the
Florida Keys and south Florida later today and spread northward
along the west coast of Florida tonight and Tuesday.  Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart
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