[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 050255
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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
1100 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ELSA A LITTLE STRONGER...
...LANDFALL ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 79.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO CUBA
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Cuban
provinces of Cienfuegos and Matanzas.

The Government of Cuba has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for the
Cuban provinces of Granma and Las Tunas, and the Tropical Storm
Warning has been discontinued for the provinces of Las Tunas,
Granma, Holquin, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos and Matanzas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban province of Camaguey

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Mayabeque, and Havana
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
* The Cuban province of Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef
* Florida Bay
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Anclote
River

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours. The hurricane conditions are expected to begin shortly after
the first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that
make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required tonight or early Monday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and radars
from Pilan and Camaguey, Cuba, near latitude 20.6 North, longitude
79.2 West. Elsa is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through
Monday, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Elsa will approach south-central
Cuba late tonight and early Monday.  Elsa is expected to move across
central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits on
Monday, and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then
forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida
on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.  Some
additional strengthening is expected before Elsa moves over Cuba,
followed by some weakening while the center moves over land. Slight
restrengthening is possible after Elsa moves over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from the
reconnaissance aircraft is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in
portions of central Cuba tonight and early Monday.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in the Florida
Keys late Monday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch areas in the Cayman Islands tonight, and in the upper Florida
Keys by Monday night.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the watch area along the west coast of Florida beginning Monday
night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Jamaica, an additional 2 to 4 inches of
rainfall with isolated storm total amounts of 15 inches are expected
through tonight. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and
mudslides, some of which could be significant.

Across portions of Cuba tonight into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This
will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Across the Cayman Islands tonight into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5
inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, Florida
Peninsula and the coastal Southeast this week. Amounts of 2 to 4
inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be
possible across Florida and Coastal Georgia Monday through
Wednesday, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor
river flooding.  Coastal portions of South Carolina are expected to
receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, with local amounts to 5 inches
Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to isolated flash
flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across southern
Florida Monday afternoon and Monday night into Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast
of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or
two.  Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida
on Monday and spread northward along the west coast of Florida
Monday night and Tuesday.  Please consult products from your local
weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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