[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS82 KKEY 042141
HLSKEY
FLZ076>078-050545-

Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 18
National Weather Service Key West FL  AL052021
541 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021

This product covers the Florida Keys

**TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Monroe Upper Keys
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Monroe Lower Keys and
      Monroe Middle Keys

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 410 miles southeast of Key West FL or about 390 miles
      south-southeast of Marathon FL or about 400 miles
      south-southeast of Key Largo FL
    - 19.8N 77.9W
    - Storm Intensity 60 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 310 degrees at 14 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 500 PM EDT, Tropical Storm Elsa was located near the coast of
eastern Cuba, to the northwest of Jamaica. There has been no
change in the intensity during the past six hours. On the forecast
track, the center of Elsa will move northwest across central and
western Cuba tonight and Monday, and emerge into the Straits of Florida
Monday evening. Confidence in the track forecast is high, while the
intensity of Elsa after it emerges from Cuba remains uncertain.
Conditions will deteriorate across the Florida Keys Monday afternoon
and Monday night, as Elsa moves north northwest into the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm.

The risk for multiple hazards remains essentially unchanged for the
Florida Keys, including tropical storm force winds, coastal flooding,
heavy rainfall, isolated tornadoes, and treacherous marine conditions.
These hazards will extend well to the east of the center of circulation
and beyond the edge of the track cone. Tropical storm conditions are
most likely to arrive late Monday afternoon and continue through
Tuesday morning, with conditions gradually improving Tuesday night.

Coastal flooding 1 to 2 feet higher than our recent high tides, along
with overwash along south facing shorelines, will be possible. These
peak water levels can be considered a reasonable worst case scenario.

Heavy rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
6 inches, may cause significant rainwater flooding, including areas
not impacted by coastal flooding. Heavy rainfall will be exacerbated
Tuesday morning during the times of high tide.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across the Lower Keys. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across the Middle and Upper Keys.

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of roads and parking lots inundated by surge water.
      Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers
      the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion.
    - Minor damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few
      small craft broken away from moorings.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited
impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation
      at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some
      streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and
      retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous.
      Some road and bridge closures.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Monroe County Emergency Management advises residents and visitors who
are in campgrounds, recreational vehicles, travel trailers, live-
aboard vessels and mobile homes to either leave the Keys this evening
or relocate to a safe structure for the duration of the storm.

No mandatory evacuation directives have been announced.

Visitors in conventional lodging facilities who are planning to leave
Monday are urged to depart as early as possible. Visitors who stay
should remain indoors until the storm clears the region.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, or on a boat, consider moving to a safer
shelter before the onset of strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For Florida Division of Emergency Management information, see
floridadisaster.org
- For Monroe County Emergency Management Information, see
monroecountyem.com/782/Emergency-Management
- For Monroe County EM Hurricane Preparedness Information, see
monroecountyem.com/1214/Hurricane-Preparedness
- For Monroe County EM Evacuation Information, see
monroecountyem.com/897/Evacuation-information
- For Monroe County shelter information, see
monroecountyem.com/992/Shelters

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Key West FL around 12 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

CLR
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