[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 022049
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
500 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

...ELSA MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 63.7W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WNW OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Warning for
Jamaica.

The Government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and
Santiago de Cuba.

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the
border with Haiti
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to
Cabo Engano

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Bahia de Manzanillo
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, and the
Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located
near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 63.7 West. Elsa is moving toward
the west near 30 mph (48 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue through Saturday.  A west-northwestward motion with a
decrease in forward speed is expected Saturday night and Sunday,
followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday.  On
the forecast track, Elsa will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea
tonight and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola late
Saturday or Saturday night.  By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move
near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba, and move near portions of
central and western Cuba Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast through Saturday.
Slow weakening is expected to begin Saturday night or Sunday as
Elsa passes near or over the Greater Antilles.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area in the Windward Islands for the next few hours.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in
Haiti and the Dominican Republic by late Saturday.  Hurricane
conditions are expected on Jamaica late Saturday or Sunday, and are
possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide
levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow
within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...4 to 6 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet
Jamaica...1 to 3 feet

RAINFALL:  Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches today across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may lead
to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.

Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts
of 5 inches is expected late today into Saturday. This rain may lead
to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the
potential for mudslides.

Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is possible
Saturday into Sunday.  This rain may lead to scattered flash
flooding and mudslides.

By early next week, Elsa is expected to impact portions of the
Cayman Islands and Cuba producing 5 to 10 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result in
significant flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the
Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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