[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT35 KNHC 021755
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
200 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

...ELSA STRENGTHENS MORE AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 62.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of the Cayman Islands has issued a
Tropical Storm Watch for the islands of Cayman Brac and Little
Cayman.

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has changed the Hurricane
Warning for St. Vincent and the Grenadines to a Tropical Storm
Warning, and has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for
Barbados.

The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has changed the Hurricane
Warning for St. Lucia to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the
border with Haiti
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* Dominica
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to
Cabo Engano
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Bahia de Manzanillo
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next few
hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, and the
Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located
near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 62.5 West. Elsa is moving toward
the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue during the next couple of days, with some
decrease in forward speed expected Sunday night.  On the forecast
track, Elsa will move away from the Windward Islands during the next
several hours, move across the eastern Caribbean Sea this afternoon
and tonight, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola late
Saturday or Saturday night.  By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move
near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba, and move near portions of
central and western Cuba Sunday night and early Monday.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds are now near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next
48 hours. Some decrease in winds is possible on Monday as Elsa
interacts with Cuba.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
140 miles (220 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the NOAA Hurricane
Hunter data is 991 mb (29.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area in the Windward Islands for the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands within the tropical storm warning areas
and are possible in the tropical storm watch areas later today.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in
Haiti by late Saturday and are possible in the hurricane watch area
in the Dominican Republic by late Saturday.  Hurricane conditions
are possible on Jamaica late Saturday or Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the
hurricane warning area in the Windward Islands and 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along the southern coast of Hispaniola.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches today across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may lead
to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.

Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts
of 5 inches is expected late today into Saturday. This rain may lead
to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the
potential for mudslides.

Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is possible
Saturday into Sunday.  This rain may lead to scattered flash
flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the
Caribbean Sea during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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