[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 020849
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
500 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

...ELSA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AND IS VERY NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THERE IN A COUPLE OF
HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 58.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from
Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the entire coast of
Haiti, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the southern
portion of the country from Port Au Prince to the southern border
with the Dominican Republic.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* The southern coast of Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the
border with Haiti
* Entire coast of Haiti

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and
warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 58.6 West. Elsa is
moving quickly toward the west-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the
Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands this morning, move
across the eastern Caribbean Sea late today and tonight, and move
near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday.  By Sunday,
Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast over
the next 12 to 24 hours, followed by little change in strength.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas and
possible in the watch areas later today.  Tropical storm conditions
are expected in the warning areas in the Dominican Republic and
Haiti on Saturday, with hurricane conditions possible in southern
Haiti.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in Jamaica Saturday
night or early Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the southern coast of Hispaniola.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals
of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches today across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain
may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.

Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts
of 5 inches is expected late today into Saturday. This rain may lead
to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the
potential for mudslides.

Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches is possible
Saturday into Sunday.  This rain may lead to scattered flash
flooding and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg
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