[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 020539
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
200 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

...ELSA APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THERE LATER THIS
MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 57.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Saba and Sint Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* The southern and western coasts of Haiti from the southern border
of the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from the southern
border of Haiti eastward to Punta Palenque
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti,
and eastern Cuba should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 57.2 West. Elsa is
moving quickly toward the west-northwest near 26 mph (43 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the
Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands later today, move
across the eastern Caribbean Sea late today and tonight, and move
near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday.  By Sunday,
Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast over the next 12 to 24 hours,
followed by little change in strength.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km),
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas
later today.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
areas in the Lesser Antilles later today, are possible in the
Dominican Republic and Haiti on Saturday, and are possible in
Jamaica Saturday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the southern coast of Hispaniola.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches today across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain
may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.

Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts
of 5 inches is expected later today and into Saturday. This rain
may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along
with the potential for mudslides.

Along portions of southern Hispaniola, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches is possible on Saturday.
This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg
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