[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jul 1 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 1800 UTC, the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near
latitude 10.6N52.6W. Elsa is moving toward the WNW at 24 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Seas peak at 16 ft.
Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 120
nm of the center. Scattered moderate convection is noted
elsewhere from 05N to 13N between 47W and 55W. Strong winds extend up
to 280 nm from the center in the NE quadrant. An even faster
forward motion toward the west-northwest is expected over the next
24 to 36 hours. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or
over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward
Islands on Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday
and Friday night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola
on Saturday. Elsa is likely to intensify some over the next day
or two, however the fast forward motion could limit strengthening.
Heavy rainfall will move quickly across the Windward and southern
Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Isolated flash
flooding and mudslides are possible. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 32W south of 10N, moving W at
10 to 15 kt.Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to
10N between 29N and 38W.

The axis of a a tropical wave is near 65W south of 20N, moving W
at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the
coast of Venezuela north to Puerto Rico between 62W and 73W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 84W south of 18N, moving W at
10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
in the SW Caribbean from the coast of Panama north to 12N between
the coast of Colombia and Costa Rica. This convection is also
being supported by the East Pacific Monsoon Trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N17W
to 09N23W. The ITCZ then continues from 09N23W to 07N30W. A second
segment of the ITCZ begins at 02N33W to 04N43W. Aside from the
convection noted in the tropical waves section, an area of
scattered moderate convection is noted near the monsoon trough
from 04N to 14N east of 12W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a surface trough is located in the NW Gulf from
28N90W to 25N96W. Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm of the
trough. A second surface trough is located 60 nm offshore the
coast of Mexico, from 21N96W to a 1010 mb low at 19N94W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted across the Bay of Campeche south of
22N. High pressure prevails across the rest of the Gulf, with
light to gentle E winds, except in the Bay of Campeche where SE-NE
winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 3-4 ft throughout the basin.

For the forecast, High pressure will dominate through the end of the
week. Tropical Storm Elsa over the tropical Atlantic is forecast
to reach near southeastern Cuba early Sun and to over central
Cuba early Mon and to possibly the far southeastern Gulf during
Mon and Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features Section above for details on Tropical
Storm Elsa, which is moving west toward the Windward Islands.

Moderate to fresh trades prevail in the eastern and central
Caribbean, with gentle to moderate trades in the western
Caribbean. Locally fresh trades were detected in the Gulf of
Honduras by the scatterometer this morning. Seas are 5-8 ft
throughout the basin, except in the NW Caribbean and Windward
Passage where seas are 2-5 ft.

For the forecast, the tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean near
65W will move quickly into the central Caribbean tonight through
Sat. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the wave
with possibly reducing visibility. Tropical Storm Elsa is near
near 10.1N 51.4W 1006 mb at 11 AM EDT moving W at 24 kt. Maximum
sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Elsa will move to near 11.2N
54.9W this evening with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts to 50
kt, to near 12.6N 59.9W early Fri with maximum sustained winds 50
kt gusts 60 kt and maintain intensity as it reaches near 14.1N
64.9W Fri evening, to near 15.9N 69.8W early Sat, to near 17.6N
73.6W Sat evening, to near 19.3N 76.5W early Sun and to over
central Cuba early Mon and to possibly the far southeastern Gulf
during Mon and Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features Section above for details on Tropical
Storm Elsa, which is moving west toward the Windward Islands.

It's funny how the vast distance of the tropical Atlantic makes
everything seem small. As of 1500 UTC, a surface trough is
located offshore the coast of Florida from 30N81W to 26N80W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from Cuba to 30N between
the Florida coast and 74W, including the Bahamas. An upper level
trough is supporting an area of scattered moderate convection from
25N to 29N between 65W and 70W. Elsewhere, ridging dominates the
waters north of 15N, with a 1025 mb high pressure centered near
30N53W. South of 22N and West of 30W, moderate to fresh trades
prevail. Moderate to fresh winds are also noted from 18N to the
Canary Islands within 200nm of the African Coast. Gentle to
moderate trades prevail elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, except
near the high center where winds are light to gentle. Seas are
2-5 ft east of 70W, and 4-6 ft elsewhere north of 20N. South of
20N, seas reach 6-8 ft outside of Tropical Storm Elsa.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will begin to shift southeast
Fri in response to as a cold front approaches the far northwest
forecast waters. The front will become stationary just north of
the area early next week. Tropical Storm Elsa is well southeast
of the area over the tropical Atlantic waters. Elsa is forecast to
move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Fri and Fri night, and
move near the southern coast of Hispaniola Sat, to near southeastern
Cuba early Sun and to over central Cuba early Mon and to possibly
the far southeastern Gulf during Mon and Mon night.

$$
Mahoney
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