[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011009
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jul 1 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Elsa is centered near 9.4N 48.8W
at 01/0900 UTC or 750 nm ESE of the Windward Islands moving W at
22 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous strong
convection is noted within 90 nm of the center. Numerous moderate
to scattered strong convection is noted elsewhere from 04N to 12N
between 43W and 52W. A strong subtropical ridge is situated
poleward of the tropical depression and this feature should steer
the system quickly to the west- northwest over the next several
days. There is significant uncertainty in the track beyond 72
hours. Elsa is likely to intensity some over the next day or two.
However, the fast forward motion could limit strengthening. Later
in the forecast period, interactions with the high terrain in
portions of the Great Antilles could disrupt the circulation
somewhat. Heavy rainfall will move quickly across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, today. Isolated
flash flooding and mudslides are possible. Please read the latest
NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 32W S of 10N, moving W at 10
kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from
01N to 09N between 28N and 35W.

The axis of a a tropical wave is near 64W S of 20N, moving W at 15
to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 05N to 19N between 60W and 68W.

The axis of a tropical wave, which recently merged with another
tropical wave previously to the W, is near 85W S of 21N, moving W
at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
over the far SW Caribbean where the wave intersects the monsoon
trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 16N16W
to 10N23W. The ITCZ continues from 10N23W to 07N28W. It resumes
from 04N32W to 06N40W. It resumes from 07N48W to 05N53W. All
significant convection in the vicinity of these features is
associated with tropical waves and is described in the section
above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across most of the Gulf, with generally
gentle winds aside from some moderate to locally fresh winds to
the west of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range
over the waters west of 90W, and 2-3 ft east of 90W.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate through the end of
the week. Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Elsa track generally
toward the basin across the northern and eastern Caribbean into
the weekend. Elsa will remain a tropical storm through the
weekend, and may move near Cuba or the far southeast Gulf early
Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features Section above for details on newly
upgraded Tropical Storm Elsa, moving west toward the Windward
Islands.

Fresh winds prevail over much of the Caribbean, with the exception
of gentle winds near Cuba and locally strong winds S of Puerto
Rico in association with a tropical wave. Seas are in the 6-9 ft
range in the central Caribbean, 4-7 ft in the eastern Caribbean,
and 3-5 ft in the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, the tropical wave in the far eastern Caribbean
will move quickly into the central basin later this week. Locally
heavy rainfall and reduced visibility will occur in its vicinity.
Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Elsa is near 9.4N 48.8W 1006 mb at
5 AM EDT moving W at 22 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. Elsa will move to 10.3N 52.0W this afternoon,
11.7N 56.7W Fri morning, 13.2N 61.8W Fri afternoon, 14.9N 66.9W
Sat morning, 16.7N 71.2W Sat afternoon, and 18.0N 74.5W Sun
morning. Elsa will remain a tropical storm through the weekend,
and may move near Cuba or the far southeast Gulf early Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features Section above for details on newly
upgraded Tropical Storm Elsa, moving west toward the Windward
Islands.

High pressure dominates the waters north of 20N, with 1024 mb
high pressure centered near 30N54W. Fresh winds prevail north of
the Antilles where the pressure gradient between the area of high
pressure and the tropical wave in the far eastern Caribbean is
tighter. Fresh winds are noted of the coast of Africa north of
20N. Light to gentle winds are noted in the vicinity of the high
center. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of 25N,
with moderate to fresh winds prevailing elsewhere south of 25N.
Seas are in the 2-3 ft range in the vicinity of the high center
and 4-6 ft elsewhere north of 20N. South of 20N, seas are in the
5-7 ft range outside of Tropical Storm Elsa.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will build westward and
dominate the forecast waters the remainder of the week. Newly
upgraded Tropical Storm Elsa is near 9.4N 48.8W 1006 mb at 5 AM
EDT moving W at 22 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. Elsa will move to 10.3N 52.0W this afternoon,
11.7N 56.7W Fri morning, 13.2N 61.8W Fri afternoon, 14.9N 66.9W
Sat morning, 16.7N 71.2W Sat afternoon, and 18.0N 74.5W Sun
morning. Elsa will remain a tropical storm through the weekend,
and may move near Cuba or the far southeast Gulf early Mon.

$$
KONARIK
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