[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030906
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Dec 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African
continent, reaching into the Atlantic Ocean through the coast near
the border of Guinea-Bissau and Senegal near 12N16W to 07N20W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 04N30W to 05N41W, then resumes west of
a surface trough near 05N43W to the coast of French Guiana near
05N53W. The surface trough extends from 11N40W to 02N42W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
02N to 11N between 26W and 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high is centered south of the Panhandle of Florida near
28N85W with a surface ridge extending across the northern Gulf of
Mexico. A surface trough is in the central Gulf from 24N90W to
19N92W. Light to gentle winds prevail under the ridge, with
moderate SE-S flow offshore of Texas and NE Mexico and also west-
northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 3 ft or less, except
3 to 4 ft south of 24N and east of 92W. Water vapor and microwave
satellite imagery show very dry conditions across the basin,
except some shallow moisture associated with the surface trough in
the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain across the northern
Gulf and dominate the basin through Sun, supporting tranquil
conditions for the next few days. A weak cold front should enter
the NW Gulf on Mon and quickly move across the northern waters on
Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Surface ridging extending into the NW Caribbean waters is
supporting moderate to fresh NE winds across the western half of
the basin, highest in the lee of Cuba. A surface trough is
analyzed from near western Jamaica at 18N79W to near the Panama
Canal at 09.5N79.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 10N to 18N within 90 nm west of the
trough. Fresh to strong winds are noted offshore of northern
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela where the pressure gradient
is tight. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in the south-central Caribbean where
the winds are fresh to strong, and mainly 3 to 6 ft elsewhere
except 2 to 4 ft in the far NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, weak high pressure north of the area will
maintain only moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the Caribbean
into next week, with nighttime fresh to strong winds pulsing off
Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela, as well as south of
Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh NE winds will also be possible over
the Windward Passage Fri night through Sat night. Moderate NE
swell over the tropical N Atlantic is expected for the next
several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed from near Bermuda through 31N67W to
27N72W. A middle to upper level trough between 56W and 67W is
supporting heavy showers and thunderstorms in this area to the
north of 25N where winds are also moderate to locally fresh. The
remainder basin is under the influence of the Azores high, which
is providing fresh to locally strong trades from 09N to 24N
between 35W and 55W. Similar winds are between Africa and 35W
north of 15N where the pressure gradient is tight with lower
pressure near the western coast of Africa. Mainly gentle to
moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 7 to 11 ft in NE to E
fresh swell south of 30N east of 60W. Seas are 3 to 6 ft west of
60W to the Bahamas.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, weak high pressure will build south
and east into the area through early next week, supporting
tranquil conditions over the SW N Atlantic for the next several
days. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may emerge off of the
Florida coast early Tue. Moderate E swell over the Atlantic from
19N-22N between 55W-65W is expected for the next several days.

$$
Lewitsky
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net