[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030537
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Dec 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African
continent, reaching into the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues from 08N18W
to 04N28W to 04N38W, then resumes W of a surface trough near
04N42W to 05N50W to 06N57W. Fresh to locally strong winds as well
as numerous moderate to isolated strong convection associated with
the surface trough are from 03N to 10N between 38W and 43W.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 02N to 11N between
25W and 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high remains centered SE of Louisiana near 29N88W with a
surface ridge extending across the northern half of the Gulf of
Mexico. Recent scatterometer data show light to gentle variable
wind across most of the basin, except off the western Yucatan
peninsula where a surface trough moving across the E Bay of
Campeche supports moderate NE winds. Seas range between 2 to 4 ft
as indicated by the latest altimeter data. Water vapor and
microwave satellite imagery show very dry conditions across the
basin, except some shallow moisture associated with the surface
trough in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain across the N Gulf and
dominate the basin through Sun, supporting tranquil conditions
for the next few days. A weak cold front should enter the NW Gulf
on Mon and quickly move across the northern waters on Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Surface ridging extending into the NW Caribbean waters is
supporting moderate to fresh NE winds across the western half of
the basin as indicated by recent scatterometer data. This data
also show a surface trough along 75W, which is enhancing the winds
to fresh to strong along the coast of Colombia. Seas are 3 to 6 ft
in this region, except for 7 to 8 ft across Colombia adjacent
waters with the highest winds. A more relaxed pressure gradient is
elsewhere, thus supporting gentle to moderate trades with 4 to 5
ft seas.

For the forecast, weak high pressure north of the area will
maintain only moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the Caribbean
into next week, with nighttime fresh to strong winds pulsing off
Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela, as well as south of
Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh NE winds will also be possible over
the Windward Passage Fri night through Sat night. Otheriwse, moderate
NE swell over the tropical N Atlantic is expected for the next
several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak pressure gradient is across the SW N Atlantic waters where
recent scatterometer data show light to gentle variable winds, and
seas are in the 3 to 4 ft range. A middle to upper level trough between
57W and 68W is supporting heavy showers in this area to the N of
25N. The remainder basin N of 20N is under the influence of the
Azores high, which is providing fresh trades between 27W and 57W
where seas are in the 7 to 8 ft range. Otherwise, a tighter
pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure
associated with a cold front along northern Africa, supports
fresh to strong NE winds N of of the Cape Verde Islands and E of
27W with seas to 10 ft.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, weak high pressure will build south
and east into the area through early next week, supporting
tranquil conditions over the SW N Atlantic for the next several
days. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may emerge off of the
Florida coast early Tue. Moderate E swell over the Atlantic from
19N-22N between 55W-65W is expected for the next several days.

$$
Ramos
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