[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272208
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Nov 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 10N14W
to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to the coast of Brazil
near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to
10N between 24W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails over the Gulf of Mexico, anchored by 1019
mb high pressure centered over the NE Gulf near 29N83W. Gentle
to moderate winds prevail across the Gulf, except in the vicinity
of the high where light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are in the
1-2 ft range over the NE Gulf, and 3-4 ft over the remainder of
the Gulf.

A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sat night. The
front will reach from the western Florida Panhandle to near
25N90W and the eastern Bay of Campeche Sun evening and to
southeast of the Gulf by Mon evening. The front will be followed
by fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas. Winds may
reach gale force in the extreme SW Gulf Mon and Mon night. Winds
will diminish and seas subside throughout late Mon night and
Tue. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift eastward
Tue through Wed night allowing for moderate to fresh east to
southeast flow to set up across the area. Another cold front is
expected to move into the NW Gulf Wed and Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the NE Gulf of
Mexico and low pressure across Colombia is supporting moderate to
fresh trades across the central Caribbean, except reaching near
25 kt off the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range over the south central
Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most of the basin
into early next week, except for northeast winds pulsing to
strong speeds near the coast of Colombia at night and into the
early afternoon hours. A cold front will reach the northwestern
Caribbean Mon evening, extend from eastern Cuba to the northeast
part of Honduras Tue afternoon and become stationary through Wed
night. The front will be followed by fresh to strong northwest
winds and building seas. Winds and seas are expected to diminish
Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of
the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1010 mb low pressure is centered in the Atlantic Ocean near
25N60W. Associated convection is well removed from the center of
the low, N of 24N between 47W and 56W. Fresh to strong winds, and
seas of 8-10 ft, are noted in this area of convection.
Conditions have become less favorable for tropical cyclone
development associated to this low, and probability of
development has decreased from the medium to low category.

A trough extends across the western Atlantic off the U.S. East
Coast from 29N80W to 34N76W. Showers are seen within 60 nm of the
trough. Farther east, high pressure ridging extends across the
central and eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1027 mb high near
33N39W. Outside of the area of strong winds mentioned above,
gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail west of 55W
and N of 20N, while moderate to fresh winds and seas of 7 to 10
ft prevail N of 20N and E of 55W. S of 20N, moderate to fresh
winds and seas of 6-7 ft prevail W of 45W, and fresh to strong
winds and seas of 8-9 ft prevail E of 45W.

High pressure over the western Atlantic extending westward to
Florida will weaken through Sat as a weakening cold front moves
across the western part of the area. Southerly winds will
increase over the NW waters beginning Sun afternoon as a strong
cold front approaches. The front will move off NE Florida early
on Mon, reach from near 31N77W to South Florida by early Mon
evening, from near 31N70W to the southeastern Bahamas and to
eastern Cuba by early Tue evening and weaken as it reaches from
near 31N65W to eastern Cuba Wed evening. Fresh to strong
northwest winds and building seas will follow in behind the
front. Winds diminish late Tue, with the highest seas shifting to
northeast of the Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms,
some possibly strong, are expected ahead of the front.

$$
AL
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