[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271705
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Nov 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 mb low pressure is centered in the Atlantic Ocean near
26N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the
center from 22N to 32N between 48W to 57W. Showers and
thunderstorms have decreased in coverage since yesterday near
this well-defined, non-tropical low pressure system located
several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. Development is
unlikely during the next day or so due to unfavorable
upper-level winds. By Sunday, environmental conditions are
expected to become a little more conducive for the low to briefly
acquire subtropical characteristics as it moves northeastward
ahead of a frontal system. By early next week, conditions are
expected to become unfavorable for further development as the
system interacts with or becomes absorbed by a frontal system.
There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next
48 hours and the next 5 days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal region of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to
04N33W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. An area of scattered
moderate convection is moving into the Atlantic off the coast of
Sierra Leone from 07N to 09N and east of 14W. Scattered moderate
convection is along and north of the ITCZ from 02N to 07N
between 21W to 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Ridging is noted across the Gulf of Mexico anchored by a 1021 mb
high over northern Florida near 29N82W. Dry conditions prevail
over the basin with light to gentle east-southeast winds in the
eastern Gulf and gentle to moderate south-southeast winds in the
western Gulf. Seas range 3-4 ft across the basin.

A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sat night, quickly
reach from the western Florida Panhandle to near 25N90W and the
eastern Bay of Campeche Sun evening and to southeast of the Gulf
by Mon evening. The front will be followed by fresh to strong
northerly winds and building seas. These conditions will diminish
Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong,
are expected ahead of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid-level trough extends across the Lesser Antilles to the
northern Guianas. This is beginning scattered showers across the
southern islands across the Lesser Antilles to the ABC Islands,
S of 14N between 59W to 69W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted in the SW Caribbean near the monsoon trough, mostly along
the Panama coast, S of 11N between 77W to 83W. Upper level
ridging extends across the northern and central Caribbean with
dry conditions prevailing throughout the region. Moderate to
fresh trades are in the central Caribbean with gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere. Seas range from 3 to 6 feet with
upwards of 8 ft north of Colombia.

Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most of the basin
into early next week. A cold front will reach the northwestern
Caribbean Mon evening and extend from eastern Cuba to near the
border of Honduras and Nicaragua late Tue. The front will be
followed by fresh to strong northwest winds and building seas.
Winds and seas are expected to diminish Tue. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features section above for information on the
low pressure SE of Bermuda.

A trough extends across the western Atlantic off the U.S. East
Coast from 29N80W to 35N74W. Most of the convection associated
with this trough is N of 32W, but showers are seen within 50 nm
along it. A trough is also right along the South Florida coast
bringing showers to the area. A trough is in the central Atlantic
from 10N56W to 17N55W with scattered moderate convection from 11N
to 14N between 54W to 58W. Otherwise, high pressure ridging extends
across the central and eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1029 mb
high near 34N37W. Light to gentle winds are in the western
Atlantic with seas ranging from 3 to 6 ft. Fresh to strong winds
are in the central Atlantic from 11N to 31N and east of 52W with
seas ranging 7 to 11 ft.

High pressure over the western Atlantic extending westward to
Florida will weaken through Sat as a weakening cold front moves
across the western part of the area. Southerly winds will increase
over the NW waters beginning Sun afternoon as a strong cold front
approaches. The front will move off NE Florida early on Mon,
reach from near 31N77W to South Florida by early Mon evening and
from near 31N70W to the southeastern Bahamas and to eastern Cuba
by early Tue evening. Fresh to strong northwest winds and building
seas will follow in behind the front. Winds diminish late Tue,
with the highest seas shifting to northeast of the Bahamas by late
Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to precede
the front.

$$
AReinhart
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