[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Nov 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning...The pressure gradient has tightened
between a broad area of low pressure located about 300 nm south-
southeast of Bahamas and a strong Bermuda High over the Carolinas
resulting in gale-force N winds within 120 nm west of the trough
axis that extends from 31N61W to a 1008 mb low near 27N63W to
19N68W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 24N-31N between 57W-62W. These gale conditions are
expected to dissipate this evening. An approaching cold front
from 31N61W to 22N73W will absorb the low by Wed. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near
09N13W to 08N15W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to a 1009 mb
low at 08N36W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 04N-11N between 17W-25W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 09N-11N between 30W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1031 mb high centered over the Carolinas extends a ridge axis
to the central Gulf of Mexico near 22N89W. Moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds are over the Gulf. Deep layer dry air
dominates the region and continue to support fair weather.

Fresh southerly return flow will prevail over the western Gulf
through tonight ahead of the next cold front forecast to reach
the northern Gulf late Wed, then stall and lift northward Thu.
Looking ahead, the next cold front is expected to move across the
Gulf waters over the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The low, trough, and cold front mentioned in the Special Feature
section have weakened the typical pressure gradient over the
Caribbean. E trades across the E Caribbean are gentle to
moderate, while the NE trades over the W Caribbean are moderate
to fresh. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the SW
Caribbean south of 15N and west of 80W.

The cold front across the W Atlantic will continue moving east
across the area while weakening. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front. As the ridge builds, winds and seas across the
south-central Caribbean including the Windward Passage will
become fresh to strong through Thu. The NE winds will return to
moderate into the weekend as ridge prevails over the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the trough/low/front
associated with the Gale Warning currently in effect over the
west-central Atlantic.

Elsewhere the Atlantic is dominated by two large, high amplitude
surface highs of 1031 mb at 34N80W and of 1038 mb at 43N34W. A
surface trough extends from 29N38W to 23N34W. No significant
winds or convection are associated with this feature.

The gale-force winds will follow the low/trough as it moves NE
through today. The disturbance is expected to move northeastward,
and there is a slight chance that it could acquire some
subtropical characteristics before it merges with a cold front
this afternoon. High pressure will build in the wake of the
front.

$$
Landsea
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