[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241729
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Nov 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning...The gradient of pressure has tightened
between a broad area of low pressure located about 450 nm
east of Bahamas and a strong ridge over the central Atlantic.
This is resulting in gale force SE winds within 90 nm east of
the trough axis that extends from 31N61W to a 1008 mb low near
26N65W to 19N68W. These conditions are expected to dissipate this
evening. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near
08N13W to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 06N33W, then
resumes near 06N36W and continues to 04N51W. A 1009 mb low is
analyzed near 06N34W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 04N-08N between 13W-26W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 03N-13N between 26W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1029 mb high centered over North Carolina near 36N79W extends
a ridge axis to the central Gulf of Mexico near 22N89W.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are over the Gulf.
Deep layer dry air dominates the region and continue to support
fair weather.

Return flow will prevail over the western Gulf through tonight
ahead of the next cold front forecast to reach the northern
Gulf late Wed, then stall and lift northward Thu. Looking ahead,
the next cold front is expected to move across the Gulf waters
over the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure over both the Gulf of Mexico and the central
Atlantic continue to support moderate to locally fresh winds
across the basin. Scattered showers are observed in a swath from
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, to the Gulf of Honduras.
Further south, widely scattered moderate convection is over the
SW Caribbean.

Winds and seas across the south-central Caribbean will
begin to increase late Tue through Thu. Fresh to strong NE winds
are expected across the Windward passage and south-central
Caribbean Tue night through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect over the west-central Atlantic.

As of 24/1500 UTC, a cold front extends across the W Atlantic
from 31N63W to 24N70W to central Cuba near 22N80W. Scattered
moderate convection is N of 28N between 59W-63W. A prefrontal
trough extends from 31N61W to a 1008 mb embedded low near 26N64W
to the E tip of Hispaniola near 19N69W. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds prevail behind the cold front, with seas to 7 ft.
A surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 29N36W to 23N31W.
The trough is void of precipitation.

The gale low/trough is expected to move northeastward, and there
is a slight chance that it could acquire some subtropical
characteristics before it merges with the cold front today.
Elsewhere, surface high pressure will dominate the remainder
central Atlantic waters along with moderate to fresh easterlies
and seas to 8 ft.

$$
Formosa
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