[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 180235
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL312020
900 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

Most of the deep convection associated with Iota has weakened
during the past several hours, with the primary remaining
convection now in a band well removed from the center in the
northwestern semicircle.  The initial intensity is reduced to 35
kt, and these winds are possibly occuring in two areas - a small
area near what is left of the inner core and along the coast of
Honduras in the Tropical Storm warning area.  Iota should continue
to quickly weaken, with the system expected to drop below
tropical-storm strength during the next few hours and to dissipate
completely between 12-24 h.  At this time, the available guidance
is not bullish on any regeneration of the system over the Pacific.

The initial motion is 270/10.  The cyclone or its remnants should
move westward to west-southwestward before dissipation occurs.

Iota is still expected to produce very serious hazards while it is
over central America, including flash flooding and mud slides,
These hazards could result in potentially catastrophic effects,
especially when compounded upon Hurricane Eta's destruction from a
couple of weeks ago.

Key Messages:

1.  Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected
through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy
rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of
Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by saturated
soils in place, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic
impacts.

2.  Tropical-storm conditions, primarily close to the center of
Iota and along the coast of Honduras, are still expected for the
next few hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 13.7N  87.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  18/1200Z 13.4N  88.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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